LibertyBell

haha I'm not a big fan of genetic modification of humans, seems a bit, shall we say, nazi-like. I'm not even a huge fan of doing it to other creatures (why must humans mess with nature? it always comes out badly for us.....)

lol@ 1995-96, that looks like the only winter since the turn of the century where all of the months were cold. Might be the last one we see in our lifetimes like that too. In the other 6 times that happened (all in the 1800s), it happened in pairs of 2 seasons each- interesting!

Have you seen the research that came out recently showing that the gulf stream is warming more rapidly than the rest of the Atlantic? Does this mean more rapidly bombing coastal storms and higher precip totals? I think we're already seeing this.

Yes, I already see that there's another cold shot scheduled for next weekend and milder temps are now pushed back until Thanksgiving?

well the history of doing this did begin in the "good ole" US of A.... after all, that is where Hitler got his ideas from.

ahh I see, FWIW I sometimes wonder what sentience really is..... and can be forms of intelligence other than biological? Consider the fossilized record of the planet a form of "memory". Perhaps in our search for ET we have to consider entities that are not biological. Not hunks of rocks per se, but things we would never consider as being "alive." Because by many definitions, something like fire can even be considered alive. I believe that the planet maintains ecological balance at any cost because that's the first law of thermodynamics and also because if it didn't life would have ceased to exist long ago. About the Gaia vs humanity thing, that cant be true either, because human beings are part of the system not against it. Mass extinctions being cases in point, have you noted how evolution explodes after a mass extinction event? The series on PBS/Nature showing how mammals started to evolve rapidly a scant 300,000 years after the Cretaceous mass extinction is a case in point. But nothing exists forever. The humanity caused mass extinction may lead to such an explosion in evolution, or it might destroy all life on the planet forever. It's too early to say which. Those of us who aren't tainted by greed and want sustainable renewables to become the new norm fight for the existence of the entire planet, but humanity's own short-sighted nature gets in the way. I do see a turning point though, where many many more voices have risen up against the status quo and perhaps a difference has been made there that will counteract all the dark money lined up against us.

this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS.

well cold and dry / mild and wet would be a sign of an AMO switch.....

Has the AMO switched back yet or is it forecast to do so within the next few years? I know we had a lot of cold dry winters back in the 80s, so it's probably not going to be as exciting as the last couple of decades have been.

Yep, I like to wait for 5 days out because the models seem to be on a huge roller coaster 7-10 days away. And some years are easier to forecast than others, this looks like one of the more difficult ones.

I think he means long range forecasting weeks and months in advance. It's better to wait until it's within 5 days, that's plenty of time for the sanitation dept too.

Yep, thats why I said Jan 20 to Mar 20 that's been the pattern this decade

maybe the lack of arctic highs entering further east has to do with the arctic warming and the glacier melt over Greenland.

hence why a cold November is usually a bad sign for winters here lol. the exceptions were all la ninas? nope 2002 was a major el nino exception (but it also had a hot summer so that may partially explain it- a late onset el nino.) 2013 and 2014 weren't la ninas either were there?

I'm not even sure why people bother with long term forecasting. Long term forecasting will be accurate when humans learn to control the weather!

wow 1917-18 only had one major snowstorm even though 60" of snow fell that year and it was below zero multiple times?

Between Jan 20 and Mar 20 BOOK IT!

thats a big change! what has neutralized the effect of UHI? The fact that we've had fresh arctic masses coming in every few days rather than a lingering stale arctic air mass?

Wow that is pretty good! With the arctic shot coming in for the start of the weekend, we'll break that record (for the first 16-17 days anyway.)

Interesting that neither last November or the one before are on this list- both were very cold! Also interesting not to see the very snowy and cold November 1989 and November 2012 not on this list.

I am actually more enthusiastic because we didn't see any accumulating snow in November

We must divorce our emotions from what the planet does to regulate itself. The system as a whole is more significant than any of its parts. With that said, I want to go after these greedy bastards who screw with the environment too! I want THEM to sink first.

In the original unedited post that wasn't mentioned. Either way, this "cold streak" was an island of cold in a sea of warmth. Unprecedented warmth was surrounding it on all sides.

Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO. Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December?

Looks like another offshore low later in the week, by then temps will be in the mid 50s.