LibertyBell

You have to assume that the models use AI to learn from past mistakes and they have what happened last year in their data banks and have corrected themselves to account for a pattern like last year's.

But last year we got colder sooner, as I remember turning my heat on October 15, and this year I waited until November to do so. And that 95 degree day on October 2 really stands out! There was a period of all-time record setting October heat this year that was unprecedented in the annals of history that was widespread across the south all the way up to our region.

it's crazy that there's heavy snow south of us

very 05-06 like

There have been some winters where we had a cold and snowy start to December and the winter in general went that way- a la 03-04 and going back further in time 60-61. But in general it's better when the last third of December is snowy rather than the first third.

The MJO also got stuck last winter in a very unfavorable phase and we dont want that happening again.

What a crazy storm that was, especially when you see that the highest snowfall totals were on Nantucket (over 30") you'd think it was a coastal scraper, but it wasn't!

Remember March (1) 2009, Chris? Thats the closest we came to an area-wide double digit snowfall in March since 1993.

I think we have this discussion every year lol. In March, you need those extreme snowfall rates to get heavy accumulations. It's harder for us or the city to get it because storms generally focus their heaviest rates either west (inland) or further east (eastern Long Island.) To get those kind of rates here in March is like a thread the needle kind of scenario. I'm not sure a January 1996 or February 1983 or January 2016 kind of storm is possible in March anymore with our heavy urbanization, where we all do extremely well (apologies to the northern crew who got cut off.)

Yes but here on the western south shore (and also in urbanized areas like the city) it's hard to get accumulation in March. The truly big storms happen in December over March around here (although it hasn't happened since 2010, but where I live we haven't had a double digit March storm since 1993, and that changed to rain.) In either case, the shorter days and lower sun angle give December a much more wintry feel, when those storms do happen. This seems to be a cyclic pattern in terms of when December/March trade places for snowfall; in the 1950s we had this pattern too. Then we switched in the 1960s. It seems to go decade by decade, as it was snowier in December in the 40s, snowier in March in the 50s (March was the snowiest month overall that decade), and back to being snowier again in December during the 60s.

Yes but I remember the latter part of December in 2005 was much milder and that led to a mild January also. Here on Long Island we didn't get anywhere near 6 inches that December. It was a one big storm winter, which we were on the eastern edge of, in February. The early April snow burst was by far the most exciting event that season, it got NYC to 40" and dumped 2" here in the middle of the day.

December is more wintry than March; snowfall is about the same, but the days are much shorter and snow pack retention is much better. Full averages (over the entirety of the climate record) are between 5-6 inches each for both months.

Dec 2005 (one of the analogs) comes to mind.

Haven't seen one of those "bowling ball" systems in awhile! A little early to get a snowstorm from one of those around here though.

This could be one of the more traveler-unfriendly Thanksgiving weekends then. I was planning on coming back on Monday anyway to avoid the holiday traffic.

Looks like a cold four day weekend then but not as cold as when we had our Arctic outbreaks earlier in the month? I saw there's a second storm coming behind the pre-Thanksgiving one (the one that is going to hit California hard), does that look to be mainly rain too (and is that on Sunday)?

How cold are we looking at for Thursday and for the entire weekend? 40s?

Do milder Decembers lead to milder/less snowy winters overall? That would be a reason my cold November less snowy winter correlation exists.

I think nature is still trying to balance out what's going on in the Arctic by making changes elsewhere in response.

well it could also be considered as an effect of climate change, as we are having more extremes now and nature is still trying to balance things out (downstream changes from a warmer Arctic.)

I wonder if that's because the Arctic has become warmer that the balance of heat has shifted to make it colder overall in the mountainous west and in the Great Plains. Also, as you can see, it's become warmer along the east coast, so this may be nature's way of trying to balance things out because of a warmer Arctic. Could also have a Pac influence here as the ice melts in the Arctic, driving downstream changes.

Yes indeed! It's in Penn Forest Township by Bear Creek Lake. 2,000 ft asl

I suspect a lot of our snow droughts down here were great winters up there. I dont know how to find this info but I was wondering where you have to be to get a minimum of 40 inches of snow every year. *actually that's too high, because I dont want to have excessive snow either. I'd settle for a minimum of 20 inches of snow a year (no complete dud winters like 2001-02, 2011-12, etc., or even 2006-07, 2007-08).

Christmas 1980 was the coldest Christmas ever and had snow with below zero temps! Winter 1981-82 had the big snow in January and the unprecedented April blizzard. Then we had the Feb 1983 HECS the following winter, and that was all she wrote for the 80s (more or less.) It was still very cold in the following winters (1983-84 and 1984-85 in particular, that Jan 1985 outbreak was the coldest I can remember) but no more big snowstorms.

Well if the Euro is right, it looks like the rain would end before Thanksgiving morning? Also, you're right, looks like our arctic November is over! No more of those frigid shots at least for the next few weeks.