LibertyBell

Thanks Ed, thats why I was hoping to see the NAM's output. It does better in these scenarios.

mini Feb 2006 lmao

Wow, I'm surprised that November 1989 and November 1995 aren't on this list. November 1995 was on the Central Park cold November list according to Uncle. Besides 2002-03, none of the other winters following your list were very snowy.

ah so not as cold as November 1989, but nearly as cold as November 1995? Also, 1959-60 was one of your analogs! Uncle I got confused by this part: .all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

I edited the post to ask why Shirley would get more snow than Hempstead, even though Hempstead is to the NW of Shirley, and NW is where the higher totals should be. And looking at the Euro totals, does this mean it's predicting 4" of snow on the front end and only 1" on the back end? I thought the back end would be much better since it would last for like 12-18 hours.....

I hate it when that warm tongue comes up through the middle of Long Island, with higher totals both to the west and east lol. Why do you suppose a place like Shirley gets more snow than Hempstead? You'd think that it should be more straightforward in this kind of pattern, the further west you go, the more snow you get. So according to this, the 5" that JFK is progged to get on the 6z Euro, like 4" of that will be on the front end? How is that possible when it's supposed to snow all afternoon Monday and all night Monday night and into Tuesday morning, Chris?

It's crazy that this storm is more than two weeks later and yet the air is supposed to be not as cold as that one's was. I think they blew the call on that one too- it was supposed to change to rain but never did.

December 2005 had similar totals for NYC and less to the east (nothing on Long Island.) NAM might do better for marginal areas.

Will, what would you compare this storm too? The three I was looking at were early December 2003 two day storm, December 2005 and last year's November 15th storm. Milder than December 2003, colder than December 2005......

I think this was JFK's coldest November since 1989 also? As cold as it's been, it still didn't match the departure of 2015's warmth!

Thats right, I assume you remember December 2005 too, Ed ;-) Later in the season the north shore and eastern LI usually do better than the city in marginal set ups, because the mean storm track shifts further east (also the waters are colder.)

Yeah thats why I was bringing up December 2005- 6" in NYC 3" at LGA 0" at JFK and points east lol. When he says NYC I assume he means Central Park, a lot of people go by Central Park numbers as their totals even when they live in some other part of the city. I know I did when I lived in southern Brooklyn. I didn't even know the airports measured snowfall back then because the media used to only report Central Park numbers, so I assumed that applied to everyone throughout the five boroughs.

sounds like the NAM would do well with this.

Just for the totals though, I think upper Manhattan did really well back during that storm too. Wasn't that another coastal storm that really got going further north which is why the city got 6" and JFK and points east got nothing though? New England did amazing with that storm also. I could see your part of Manhattan getting to 6" this time around too. Or is this more like the two day December 2003 storm except a less favorable track for us?

Using December 2005 as one of my analogs for this storm, city, northwest, northeast, etc., did well while as soon as you got east of Queens there was nada lol.

Yes! I love that area..... Franklin Avenue goes all the way down to the Five Towns area around Hewlett :-) I'm sure you know the snowfall climatology here, but just to fill you in, we usually only jackpot in big el nino events where storms are originally progged to stay just to our south and they make it up here "at the last moment." Examples are February 1983, February 2003 (PD2) and January 2016, all of which were 20"+ events here and the last one was 30"+! January 1996 was also 20"+ but that pretty much buried everyone, and so was the one exception to that rule! Those four are the full list of 20"+ snowfalls for our area since I've been living here. Higher elevated parts of the city will definitely do well. Do you remember December 2005? Central Park (132 ft above sea level) got 6", we got nothing. We ended up with around 25" of snow that season while NYC touched 40" I think that last event in April was the only one in which we jackpotted, as we got half of NYC's total in the big February event.

FYI this idea that this is our last snow chance til late in the month probably isn't right, it's going to be cold all week and I see that temps will only be in the mid 30s by next weekend!

It would be a nice sign if this changed to snow during the day! The earlier the better.

2-8" is a huge range lol. I can buy a surprise for someone but really doubt that would happen here on the south shore where we live lol. I could see 4"+ in the higher elevated parts of the north shore of LI and northern Manhattan and the Bronx though. RIP Nate, this is the kind of event where Mt Zucker could get a nice surprise. I hope he does and gets to enjoy it wherever he is. Where we live is a "cold spot" (meaning lower totals in a paradoxical sense) even when it's well below freezing- I think it has to do with being near sea level and the stabilizing effect of the ocean.

That was pretty much as expected, there's a reason why local mets dont buy into random bands like that. It's like trying to predict where a norlun will set up (which are also more common in southern NJ for some reason.) Consider ourselves lucky if we get 1-3" with more emphasis on the 1" part of that range.

Is it unusual to have rain in Chicago and snow in NYC from the same storm?

If this storm had taken a more favorable track it could have been like the famous early December 2003 two day storm :-( that dumped 20" on Central Long Island and over a foot in the city.

This is the kind of event where the NAM should excel, it's been on a hot streak anyway since 2016.

Relying on a random band to get you up to your predicted snowfall totals is probably not such a good idea..... oh, what you said reminded me of February 2006, one of the winters this is being compared to, where the city got buried by a megaband and those of us just east of that band got half the snow lol.

What storm is that? Two events that I wanted to compare this to is December 2005 (which went badly for us on Long Island) and last year's November 15th storm. If this had taken a better track it could have been like the famous two day early December storm of 2003 :-(