LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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haha you remember that storm like I remember the Thanksgiving 1989 storm down here. I had to get up early to help my dad clean the driveway and I remember hearing him mutter under his breath words I had never heard before! ps surprise storms are the best! they are certainly remembered the best lol. -
it must've been rather windy in that 71 storm- 71 was quoted as the last time that the Thanksgiving parade balloon-fest was canceled in NYC!
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still snowing in Brooklyn and north of us so we may not be completely done yet
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this storm is being compared to the late Dec 2002 storm up there, were the temps around the same in that one?
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Don, do you think the rest of the month, starting with next Monday will be above normal and pretty snowless?
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Snow intensity has lightened up significantly, looks like it might be stopping soon.
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its been snowing here in SW Nassau steadily since 8 PM last night! started at 2:30 PM snowed hard for an hour and then it was on and off until 8 PM since when it's been going pretty good, parking lots, driiveways and trees are caked, roads are clear though except for the edges
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it's been moving southeast!
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Our snow season is January and February. Patience. Anything before that or after it is a bonus.
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this is recycled cold air, not true arctic air. Even Albany was in the low 30s throughout and they had 40 hours of snow! why are our longest highest precip storms mixed precip and not all snow?
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yep, probabilities are highest of getting 1-3" in this kind of pattern, thats why you see tv mets go on the conservative side- they have the most chance of verifying.
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in this age of megastorms, we've also had a lot of 1-3" events just like this what we've missed out on is the moderate to low level significant events- a la events of 4-6" or 6-9" we either get 1-3" or less or 10" + The Poconos busted too, they were supposed to get over a foot and got less than 6.
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it's still snowing here lol! totally worth it even if changed over hours after the city did- we didn't go all snow until 2:30 PM its been snowing here steadily since 8 PM! even when it switched to rain on the north shore lol any idea why there was a warm bubble of rain around JFK for a few hours between noon and 2:30 PM while it was snowing to the south, north, east and west? all the trees are caked in snow here, parking lots and drive ways also covered, but all the roads are clean aside from the edges
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I think it's just rain here now but not going to use my ass to test it lol. Could still be freezing rain, but whatever is falling is not making any noise.
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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm
LibertyBell replied to Zelocita Weather's topic in New York City Metro
we thought the NAM might be the best model for this storm -
we thought the NAM might have this ;-) hope it's right about tomorrow too!
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Thanks Walt. I figured intuitively that when the ground gets wet it matches the wet bulb temp so that should be the highest temp freezing rain can fall, wet bulb=32! Also, when it's falling really hard, rain may not freeze even when the temp is below 32! (by a couple degrees).
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funny thing is trying to figure out where the mix line will set up is usually the tough part!
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How much does the convection influence where the low sets up? There's been some discussion of short term changes based on that.
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and the I-95 mets never lived that one down lol. After that storm all of our local outlets went extremely conservative with their snowfall forecasts. You never see a call of more than 6-12 inches on TV around here, regardless of what the models show, until we're right in the middle of the storm.
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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm
LibertyBell replied to Zelocita Weather's topic in New York City Metro
2-3 or 1-3 is what a lot of the forecasts had. Latest is they're talking about perhaps having to tick their forecasts upward based on what happens tomorrow. -
Looks like the models were (for the most part) correct.
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Thanks that must be it- it was below freezing for several hours last night. I thought it had something to do with the dew point lol, that the surface cools down to the dew point when precip is falling! Maybe it cools down to the wet bulb temp instead?
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How do we get freezing rain at 33? And what's the highest temp you can have freezing rain at?
