On 9/9/2024 at 8:30 PM, USCG RS said:

Yeah, I would love to see a study performed as to why this area tends to jackpot with precipitation. Orographic in some way? 

I'd agree with that plus it's on the north shore, so away from the ocean and in the middle of the island.  Everything points to that area as being the most favorable-- and you add elevation to it-- and it's a cinch.

The only time it doesn't jackpot is in strong el ninos, when we seem to jackpot on the south shore-- when we have an all snow snowstorm that is.

February 1983, PD2 and January 2016 are examples of this.

On 9/10/2024 at 1:05 PM, USCG RS said:

We haven't had a true KU in a good while. I remember growing up just watching the Weather Channel for any information I could get on those storms. I may have been a geek.. 

 

I can't stand The Weather Channel anymore.

They have those awful Blue Chew boner drug ads on there all the time.

No other network has those ads-- only The Weather Channel.

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we go by the MEI, which has 2023-24 as a weak el nino, then 2007-08 is the closest match. Next best would be 2020-21.

I guess our best hope is the la nina goes east-based. Then maybe we could squeeze out a 2021-22 or even 2017-18 type winter.

There's another similarity to 2007 which I'll throw out there, although it might mean nothing but it still sticks out.  It's the last time it got this cool in August..... it's the last time we saw temps of 57 or colder here in August.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, its still very active per ACE...bit of a misconception in relation to that.

2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]

Basin	Current YTD	Normal YTD	% of Normal YTD	Yearly Climo*	2023**
Northern Hemisphere	136.2100	210	64%	575	648
Western N Pacific	50.625	114	44%	298	266
Eastern + Cent N Pac	26.9875	66	40%	132	165
North Atlantic	56.31	21	268%	122	146
North Indian	2.2875	7	32%	23	60
Southern Hemisphere	169.958	209	81%	205	244
Global	269.3030	382	70%	780	881

 

*Yearly climatology from historical 1991-2020 Tropical cyclone best track datasets

Yep, just not historic.  Getting a Cat 5 so early in the season helped boost the ACE.

On 4/6/2024 at 9:02 PM, gallopinggertie said:

Okay but human agriculture has only been around during a very narrow range of global average temperature, which is much cooler than the vast majority of those 65 million years without reaching the coldest extremes of the current Ice Age. I don't think we want to see how our civilization would do at Eocene-like temperatures. And on top of that, it's the rapidity of the change that's so troubling. It would be much easier to cope with a ten foot sea level rise over 2,000 years than over 200 years. Not making any specific predictions here, just giving an example. Humans are adaptable, but we have our limits.

Makes a lot of sense, which is why this is an existential threat.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the only wild card for mid season is Bluewave's October MJO rule...if the MJO isn't amplifed in October, then we roast mid winter.

hmm I wonder if that means that if we see a lot of tropical activity in October that's a good sign for winter?

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the early season will be more Pacfic driven..ie Aleutian ridging and -EPO/WPO, though the PV shouldn't be too stout....then mid season it goes very warm with less of an RNA before perhaps blocking/big RNA late season.

bookend winter perhaps Ray?

On 8/13/2024 at 3:54 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Remember that like it was yesterday. 

wow and this year we had a summer Nemo version on close to the same day and in the same area that Nemo jackpotted.

On 7/28/2024 at 9:39 PM, SACRUS said:

not yet 89 2 times, but there was a period where i didnt see intra hour highs till Jul 18th

Looks like JFK got one in July, Tony, what day was that on?

On 8/6/2024 at 8:20 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 94
TEB: 93
BLM: 93
TTN: 92
New Brnswck: 92
PHL: 91
LGA: 91
NYC: 90
ACY: 90
JFK: 87
ISP: 84

Holding at 9 90 degrees here and might not get any more this season?

August 1-3 was our first and only heatwave here on the south shore this season.

On 8/22/2024 at 4:15 AM, gravitylover said:

It's amazing just how much water fell in such a small area in so little time.

the summer version of Nemo-- in the same areas too.

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

coming to a january near you

 

For us that might be next July

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record breaking 100” of precipitation since last July in parts of the area. 
 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 23, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	100.47
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	98.18
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	97.40
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	96.58
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	95.62
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	95.48
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	94.95

Chris, did this last event remind you of Nemo in some ways?  Same areas got the historic totals in both storms (the snowfall max spot on Long Island!)  I don't mind getting off easy with only 2-3 inches of rain this time, big time flooding is one type of extreme event I never want to see.

24 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when was the last time in mid august we had a 4 day stretch stretch of below normal temps and low humidity..

The weather has been perfect the last two days, the first two days were too cold and windy which aggravated my allergies.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record breaking 100” of precipitation since last July in parts of the area. 
 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 23, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	100.47
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	98.18
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	97.40
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	96.58
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	95.62
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	95.48
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	94.95

this has got to be even more rare than 100 inches of snow!

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Colder relative to what many susepect.

Early winter might be cold (it's already turning cooler and feels like Fall), but it will also probably end after Mid January.  Most of our snow will likely be in December and part of January

Looks like the tropical season won't live up to expectations-- I never thought this was going to be some historic 2005/2020 repeat.

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Hot in the city

 

1PM Sizzle:

 

 

EWR: 96
PHL: 94
BLM: 94
New Brnswck: 94
TTN: 93
ACY: 93
JFK: 92
LGA: 92
NYC: 92
ISP: 91
TEB: 91

 

The hottest day of the year--- we hit 94 here so far

Does JFK have a heat index of 100?  I believe it's their highest so far!

On 7/30/2024 at 8:51 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I would agree. There seems to be little objective evidence that this has "not been a hot summer" in the New York City metro area. It looks like it's top 3-5 to date at all of the local climate sites. I do note there's been a push on this forum to redefine what a hot summer is to strictly look at the number of 90+ days and/or to consider only one's subjective feelings rather than objective facts. But even with the 90+ metric, 2024 is doing pretty well in most places. 

At Central Park, only 18 years (dating to 1869) have had more days at or above 90F. And this is despite the encroaching jungle / shading of the ASOS. At Newark, only 10 years have had more days at or above 90F [3 of those 10 with just 1 more]. It's actually not normal for there to be constant 90s in the New York City area. If you think it is, you are misremembering.  Now, it is true that JFK has only had 2 such days, which is actually one of the lower tallies there. But that's not representative of much of the region.

 

It's more than just that.  It's a very hot summer inland yes-- but NYC has had zero days higher than 95.  Here on Long Island it's even worse. No day hotter than 91-92 and JFK didn't have a single 90 degree day in July.

1983, 2002 and 2010 were all much much hotter for us.

Add in 1991 and 1993 for the city too.

On 7/30/2024 at 8:12 AM, JetsPens87 said:

It's been one of the hottest summers on record here.

I know, it sucks we were left out of all the fun.

I think there's a connection between inland hot summers and rain/snow lines in the winter.... might want to look into that.

JFK has had a measly 2 90 degree days all year and none in July.

Here on the south shore we have had 5 in total for the year and 2 in July.

I think the rain/snow line will set up the same way in the winter, expect a lot of changeover storms with the coast getting not more than 2-3 inches in any storm.  Just like the highest temps we've had this summer have been 91-92.

My hottest summers were 1983, 2002 and 2010.

Two of those were followed by great winters here too.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No one is really engaging in that thread, however, and so not liking that ... "the person" has wondered back here to resume. 

LOL

This shows how awful fracking is, maybe some people will finally figure it out-- fracking water is contaminated with radioactive waste 600x higher than 'SAFE' levels.

https://grist.org/regulation/roadspreading-pennsylvania-fracking-waste/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

Siri Lawson and her husband live on a stamp of wooded, hilly land in Warren County, Pennsylvania, nestled in the state’s rural northwest corner. During the summer heat, cars traveling on the county’s dirt roads cast plumes of dust in their wake. Winter’s chill can cause a hazardous film of ice to spawn on paved roads. To protect motorists from both slippery ice and vision-impairing dust, communities across Pennsylvania coat these roads with large, cheap volumes of de-icing and dust-suppressing fluids. In Lawson’s case, her township had been using oil and gas wastewater as a dust suppressant, believing the material was effective.

But researchers have found it is no better at controlling dust than rainwater. It can also contain toxic chemicals and have radioactive concentrations several hundred times the acceptable federal limit in drinking water. Given the risks it poses to human health and the environment, Pennsylvania lawmakers and the state’s environmental agency disallowed this practice more than seven years ago. 

But oil and gas companies have continued to spread their wastewater practically unchecked across the state, thanks to a loophole in state regulations. A Grist review of records from 2019 to 2023 found that oil and gas producers submitted more than 3,000 reports of wastewater dumping to the state Department of Environmental Protection, or DEP. In total, they reported spraying nearly 2.4 million gallons of wastewater on Pennsylvania roads. This number is likely a vast undercount: About 86 percent of Pennsylvania’s smaller oil and gas drillers did not report how they disposed of their waste in 2023. 

Wastewater dumping is an open secret on Pennsylvania roads. At a legislative hearing this spring, state senators Katie Muth and Carolyn Comitta, both Democrats, said they witnessed companies spreading wastewater last fall during a tour of new fracking wells. Lawson, who has become a public face of opposition to wastewater dumping, experiences sinus pains and believes her symptoms are connected to living near roads coated with wastewater. Sometimes the pain has been so intense she’s had to leave her home “to get different air.” She’s submitted multiple complaints to DEP over the years, but she says it has done little to drag the agency off the sidelines. 

https://grist.org/accountability/fracking-waste-california-aqueduct-section-29-facility/

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I used to live 2 blocks from the beach in Long Beach. There were days when it was 85° at my old place and almost 90° from Atlantic ave in Oceanside to Sunrise highway. Then many more 90° days in SW Nassau north of the Southern State. Mineola is probably one of the hottest spots on Long Island very close to the Queens border. I believe the 52 days reaching 90 in 2010 is probably the all-time record for Long Island. It was very competitive with Newark that summer due to the frequent westerly flow.

 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	52	0
2	1988	34	50
3	2002	33	0
4	2005	32	2
5	1999	27	10
-	1991	27	0

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50

and Mineola hit 109 in 2011 didn't they?

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The JFK ASOS is closer to the water than your area is. When I used to live in Long Beach it could be 85° but closer to 90° from Sunrise to Southern State. So the 90° counts steadily increase away from the immediate shoreline.

 

 

I'm actually 5 min south of Sunrise Hwy and we're still hotter than JFK-- we hit 90-91 when JFK is stuck between 86-89.

Our highest temps are around 1 PM

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, 110F with 15-20% humidity, a 20-mph breeze, and a thick pall of acrid smoke greatly dimming the sun/solar radiation probably would not feel that bad tbh.

not the wild fire smoke, but I remember the summer of 2010 here and it was very awesome.

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Enjoy the next few days then. Humidity will be much lower. 

Yes it looks like it will be amazing from Friday onwards!

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll pass

you want this soup? its hard to breathe.

I wish I had the power to evaporate the atlantic and the gulf of mexico and suck all that moisture to Mars