LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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The heaviest snow is usually just north of the mix line. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and other models show.
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So the mix line south of us isn't much of a worry because there is arctic air pressing down? That's what made PD2 a HECS, that arctic air resulted in high ratio snow, we got 26 inches at JFK.
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Wild, that looks a lot like PD2. This is actually for Presidents Day weekend too. The High to our north is in a prime position too and not moving offshore.
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The difference being that time that no one north of there did very well. The block was too strong. -
Don, was February 1989 one of those rare storms?
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This is for next Tuesday?
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Yes, a perfect example of the differences between our latitude and New England is March 2001. We had about 2-4 inches of snow here in March 2001, a major disappointment. But as soon as you got a few miles north, Bridgeport had like a foot of snow. Going east also helped, as parts of Suffolk County also had about a foot of snow.
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2002-03 was our last wall to wall winter, it's in a completely different category from this winter..... was that the last time we had DJFMA all colder than normal? I'm pretty sure it was the last time all of those months had snowfalls. It was only bested by 1995-96 when we had snowfalls in NDJFMA a record 6 months in a row.
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Being in New England will definitely guarantee results lol.
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he's also in a prime spot for being in New England. I think people in New England have a lot to be excited about (and looking at their forum posts they definitely are.) I just don't know how much of that we get, but if we get a few inches of snow here and there, I think we should be happy down here. If we somehow make it to 20 inches of seasonal snowfall down here by the end of the season, that should be considered a win. It won't be a historic or great snowfall season but if we get close to average, we should be happy.
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the colder than normal February is a shocker, when was the last time all three months DJF were below normal? and DJFM if all four months are colder than normal?
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if there's a screaming fast flow, it's not a favorable pattern. Temperatures below freezing by themselves do not make for a favorable pattern.
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Yep, thats what I'm thinking too, the flow is entirely too fast for double digit totals for anyone. Something to think about for next week too, if we even get a *direct hit* from that storm, which we may not.
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Even all snow areas (like Boston) won't get more than 6.
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I strongly doubt even Boston gets more than 6 inches out of this. 6 inches is probably the top end for this storm for anyone.
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I've seen situations like that, even more notably there was a storm in early April 1996 (before the big one) when Montauk got 3 inches of snow and the rest of us only changed to nonaccumulating snow at the end.
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Thanks for the laugh lol
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I wish they'd keep the NAM up to date, it has value in situations like this and also in el nino strong southern stream patterns (like January 2016 for example.)
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what does it show for JFK? any plain rain down this way or all frozen?
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whats causing all these bad 850 storm tracks? Is that also because of the se ridge being too strong?
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Yes that was a fun storm and a fun week of weather with two nice snowstorms.
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I accidentally skipped over the part where you said a pandemic that would kill off at least 10% of the population, for that I'd amend my estimate to 100-200 years. But a pandemic that kills off at least 1% of the population could happen again within 20 years. We would hope people and governments would have learned something from what just happened to be able to prevent this in the future (China has been shutting down wet markets), but we just don't know if it will be enough. We certainly need people to have more trust in public health institutions and agencies like the WHO. Pandemics are yet another example why no person and no nation lives in isolation, we're all part of a global society and to function sustainably, humanity needs to start behaving like it.
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I do not remember did we have a WSW for St Patrick's Day 2007 when we received 5-6 inches of sleet?
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I think 500 years is being overly optimistic, probably more like 20 years-- we've had a few close calls before Covid and since 2000. Human beings are advancing into tropical forests where they don't belong and we also have the disgusting impacts of wet markets. According to many biologists, the pace of pandemics will only increase. edit-- I see you wrote your estimate is based on killing off 10% of the population-- for that I'd say somewhere between 100-200 years.
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Nothing to disagree with here. I don't remember seeing myself using the right vs wrong ideology, most of my observations were in hindsight. It's always easier to analyze something after it happens. What's going on right now though is pretty obvious.
