LibertyBell

Matthew Belk from NWS Boston live on TWC right now talking about this winter said this winter the snowfall was 3x the last two winters so not that bad at 28 inches only slightly below normal (according to him). He said it was still a somewhat snowy winter although the wind was a bigger concern than the snow this season. They asked him how rare it is not to get even one noreaster in a season and he said he would have to look into that and get back to them.

Matthew Belk from NWS Boston live on TWC right now talking about this winter said this winter the snowfall was 3x the last two winters so not that bad at 28 inches only slightly below normal (according to him). He said it was still a somewhat snowy winter although the wind was a bigger concern than the snow this season. They asked him how rare it is not to get even one noreaster in a season and he said he would have to look into that and get back to them.

Yep, we barely got the edge on two storms that got JFK a 4 inch and 6 inch storm in the same week but the rest of the area was fringed.

That could be them underestimating the speed of the Pac jet. We've had that here too much less moisture than modeled. The last storm was an exception though.

Yeah there needs to be a solution that involves desalinating the water from the Pacific and bringing it in to keep these moist. I remember seeing that in some of the 3D models.

interesting how recent Marches have become so warm so early, 2022 being a case in point (as was 2024).

wow that 70 mph report from Stony Brook is out of this world, probably closer to 60 mph here

the la nina this season was also a late bloomer so this is an interesting lag going on-- is it because we would be quickly switching from la nina to el nino to la nina and back to el nino from year to year?

we need it to stop that Pac jet. in past documented cases of this kind of Pac jet, an el nino was needed to put it to an end.

what were the highest wind gust reports? I didn't see any, I was too busy sneezing most of the night.

Just so you know, there's a few good forecasters who are optimistic about next winter; let's just say, they think it could be something between 1986-87 and 2014-15, this is dependent on a weak el nino for next winter. Don't lose all hope.

why what happened over there? are you going to resubscribe next fall/winter?

If they are so predictable, how come our models have such a problem predicting them ;-)

wow these are stunningly beautiful, I have seen some models like this for LA and other cities as one solution to expanding cities. terraced gardens....

sunny and dry is fine but this damn wind needs to stop if fire become a real threat remove all the fuel. A scientist friend of mine told me if the West is really serious about stopping fires they just need to remove the trees and brush and pave everything over with concrete (he was joking-- sort of.) It's going to happen one day as our population grows we'll have more and larger cities and the fuel for these fires will be chopped away and removed (for better or for worse.)

The last cycle was a long one (but it did have some breaks in it) maybe we will now have more pronounced and more amplified cycles but with a shorter duration? Isn't there a law of conservation of momentum that states this should be the case? Anyway if we start from the 70s we had this from 1969-70 to 1975-76 and then we saw a break because of the two year el nino which continued on for a few years to the super el nino and beyond 1976-77 to 1986-87 and then we had another period of fast flow from 1987-88 to 1991-92 and then we started to get a major breakdown beginning with 1992-93 continuing to 1995-96 before we saw one more period of fast Pac flow from 1996-97 to 2001-02 and thats when that entire pattern broke down from 2002-03 to 2005-06. It came back from 2006-07 to 2008-09 and then left again with the el nino of 2009-10 and that period lasted through 2017-18. And then the fast Pac flow resumed again with 2018-19. Obviously I'm leaving out some years that bucked the decadal trend but I'm just trying to broadbrush general patterns.

The way I picture it, the strong jet stream favors west to east tracks rather than south to north or southwest to northeast tracks, hence no benchmark tracks. The only time we get non west to east tracks is when the SE ridge amplifies enough to break the west to east track and to amplify that much it has to become really strong and then we get cutter tracks.

So these high winds aren't from yesterday's storm being slow to depart and strengthening, Chris?

my favorite map of the year! Mt Pocono not on here? is there any way to get these for past seasons?

why are we getting this horrible wind? I thought this storm was gone? And if it's not gone why isn't the strong pacific flow getting rid of it more quickly? I couldn't sleep all night it made my allergies act up. If a storm is going to bring this kind of wind, I'm good with no storms for the rest of the month, sunny and dry is MUCH better.

aren't +NAO becoming much more common in the winter and -NAO are becoming much more common in the Spring? Larry showed some stats that back this up.

10" of snow in Florida and 12" near New Orleans lol

our hottest summers were in the 90s and the early 00s though. I don't think -NAO correlates to a cool summer either though.

-NAO doesn't mean a cool summer, didn't 2010 have a -NAO?

-NAO summer doesn't mean the summers would be cooler though -NAO can result in a blowtorch summer too. It's really moreso that we have a -NAO in the spring.