LibertyBell

wow Ray, so this a 40-45 year cycle? at this rate the next one will be around 2037-2042 lol. note that the current peak is lower than the previous peak, maybe thats why we have not seen as many east coast hurricanes (and long duration heatwaves) as we did back in the 30s, 40s and 50s? The last flip happened around 1967, and our last really hot summer in that period was 1966.

I think it will also cause more political unrest and more conflict too. There's a strong correlation between hotter weather and more violence.

It seems to be delayed, but it has to happen eventually? Maybe a modified version of one?

It's why we need geoengineering John. Blue Green Algae are/were the greatest geoengineers of all time and without them none of us would be here today.

we're already seeing those mass migrations now, it's already happening

Yes, the key word is *gradual* and it's not just our need to adapt but the need for the entire food chain to adapt too. We have had both a hot house Earth and an ice ball Earth in the past but the changes always took place over millions of years.

I wonder how well this is verifying as the paper is from 2013. Note how Indonesia was supposed to hit the tipping point by 2020. Have they?

We saw this last year near the peak of tropical season too, it makes me think we are evolving towards a -AMO

it's not bad, it did clear out for awhile late yesterday (after 4 pm here). I wouldn't say it's mostly cloudy, maybe like 30 percent clouds lol

Cooler this morning than it was yesterday morning.

The models are way too aggressive with the sea breeze, in all my experience here, this does not happen, especially in late July, very similar to how certain models show zero snow on Long Island while it's 2 feet at Newark lol. Just going by local climatology, I'm sure we'll make it to at least the low 90s here before any sea breeze kicks in.

These 11 year record highs should be investigated further, looks like we started having these 11 year peak heat summers beginning in 1933 (so it's 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010).... I thought 2021 broke the cycle but it looks like 2021 was very similar to 1988 in that the peak heat was inland. The next one will be 2032. It doesn't mean other summers won't be very hot, it just means that the 11 year peak should be hotter than the summers around it.

Omg I'm so sorry. I lost my sister on April 28th so I feel your pain, may he rest in peace and may his memory be a blessing.

I think if you're up very late (or very early) it should be okay. Typically a full moon doesn't mess up a meteor shower much if you're up after 3 am as the moon is lower in the sky and in a different part of the sky (it will be in the west will the meteor shower is in the northeast.) I've only seen the Geminids one time and they were really good, but it was too damn cold and I was only outside for 30 minutes while unpacking my car lol. It's why the Perseids are my favorite meteor shower, all the other ones I like happen when it's too cold to be outside -- so I try to glimpse a few through my windows from the warmth of my house.

it could also be because the airmass is cooler.

The same thing happens on the south shore, JFK heats up faster than the city up until about 1-2 pm before the sea breeze kicks in.

it's that damn onshore wind. Last night was nice, it was in the mid 60s here.

Yes, some of those birds even make it up here. Today was a fine day for bird photography, not only did I see cardinals and mockingbirds (which are regulars here), I also saw a green parakeet who was talking (in bird words lol) to his partner. The reason I know they were using language is because there were distinct words and sentences in between pauses when the partner responded lol. We also have many different kinds of gulls and terns here, but those are pests.

Even LGA only has 1 100 degree high in that period though. Maybe it's that monsoon issue you mentioned? Do we see a ramp up in rainfall beginning in the last week of July? edit-- it's July 24-30 I think the 100 degree records resume on the 31st lol.

it's really strange how there are no triple digit highs at NYC between July 24-30 yet we see triple digit highs quite frequently between July 20-23 and then it just seems to fall off a cliff.... Maybe it's because of the days getting shorter that the record highs fall off a cliff after the 23rd (but that does not explain the triple digit highs we saw more frequently in previous eras in August and even September.)

it's hard to be below average in the summer without a very wet month, does it look like we'll get a lot of rain in August?

Yep and the other issue is even with cooler temps, the sun is so strong it heats the house up quickly. If I turn it off, like today, it's only off during the mornings and on cloudy days.

But for example, temperatures rise quicker here during the day and fall quicker here at night with a lower dew point..... doesn't dew point indicate actual moisture content while relative humidity is relative to the saturation point at that temperature?

I wonder if that heat had occurred a month later we would have challenged the records we set in 2011 on this date. Late July is usually about 5 degrees hotter than late June.

Isn't the moisture content going to put a blanket on the most extreme temperatures though? The wetter the air is the harder it is to heat up. As an example (besides the usual onshore flow stuff), Death Valley (as an example) has not exceeded its all time record of 134 set in 1913. Even if that record is eventually proven to be too high, their all time record has *stalled* in the 129-130 degree range. Same goes for the other global hot spot on the planet, the Middle and Near East (which have all time record highs in the 129-130 region also.) Do you think that the planet has a cap for how hot it can actually get? And would this be because of the amount of water that we have on the planet that will be a barrier to the highest temperatures on the planet from getting much hotter? So, for example, if we eventually see 3C of warming, would the hottest temperatures on the planet be limited to a 1C rise on the high end?