LibertyBell

I'll hopefully be getting the best of both storms, leaving for the Poconos in one hour and will return Tuesday or Wednesday.

we have another chance at a snowstorm at the end of February.

that was an unreal 1800s kind of winter

Best part is we will finally get a day time blizzard! This could be the best one here since January 2016.

I'll revise, I think they'll be 12:1 based on past storms like this even with the high winds. Temperatures will be in the 20s and the snow will be dry and powdery.

it's perfect the heaviest snow will be falling during the day Thursday with temperatures in the 20s and the winds gusting up to 50 mph! On the Euro, the only mixing issues I saw were south of Atlantic City and east of Riverhead. I said *mixing issues* because although it looks like the mix line will get as far north as Toms River and as far west as Fire Island, it doesn't cause lowering of snowfall totals until you're south of Atlantic City or east of Riverhead. 24 hour blizzard Midnight Thursday to Midnight Friday.

10:1

only eastern long island mixes though

The tuck rule?

Wasn't February 1978 tucked in though? I've seen satellite images where it looked like a hurricane with an eye due south of Long Island. I guess it depends on what type of storm. Some storms that tuck into the coast are so strong that they wrap cold air all the way around the storm. The Millenium storm was like that too.

The GFS will give you insomnia. Luckily, I go to bed at 10 PM before any of this stuff comes out and read it when I wake up.

They are both toxic.

It appears AI has a sense of humor. I'm headed to the Poconos this morning ahead of the snow and ahead of congestion pricing lol.

it's the same paper but I can't post the link so I just quoted from it, it shows the lower verification scores of 6z and 18z and which type of data are not ingested in those runs.

yes it's specifically less new land RAOBs, but still some new data I posted a pdf about it a few years ago file:///C:/Users/CosmicQuantum/Pictures/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf I don't know if this is the same paper you posted but I'll take a look All cycles have been steadily improved. • 12Z cycle is comparable to 00Z cycle. • 06Z and 18Z cycles are worse than 00Z and 12Z cycle GFS 06Z and 18Z cycle are less skillful than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. • The difference in the NH is the largest 06Z data count is always less (10~30%) than other cycles. • Even though the 18Z-cycle forecast score is worse than that of the 00Z cycle, 18Z conventional data count is not less than 00Z data count! Note even though the total number of land soundings is almost the same among the four cycles, 06Z and 18Z have much less land RAOBs than the 00Z and 12Z cycles ! 18Z and 00Z have the same amount of conventional data, but 18Z has worse forecast skills than 00Z. On the other hand, 12Z has less conventional data than 00Z, but 12Z and 00Z have similar forecast skills. 06Z and 18Z cycles have 10 to 20 times less land rawinsonde observations than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. Is the lack of RAOBS responsible for the lower forecast scores of the 06Z and 18Z cycles? More investigation is required to understand its impact. The forecast skills of GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as that of the 00Z and 12Z cycles.

the one with the historic arctic outbreak that defined that entire decade

yep, 6z and 18z don't include the new upper air data

likely isn't a certainty, likely to me means a 50% or higher probability. everything is a probability.... perhaps a chance of snow would be more accurate but maybe they wanted to convey a higher degree of likelihood. Our local channels are also doing it, Lee Goldberg just said the probabilities of significant snowfall have increased on WABC 7.

about as often as you see rain likely or wind likely

we had this in the late January 2011 storm too. We never changed over in the December 2003 storm but the mix line was 5 miles south of us on the first day of the storm (we had our best snowfall rates that day too.) we did change over to sleet and thundersleet in the late January 2011 snowstorm and to very heavy snow that night.

ominous to me means dangerous.... do you foresee widespread power outages with this? we haven't discussed how high the winds will be.

Congrats-- you just got NAM'ed for 3 inches of snow 3 inches of snow is what passes for getting NAM'ed this season!

How many of these -5 AO blocks did we have during the 80s, Chris? February 1989? December 1989?

this winter somewhat reminds me of 1988-89, a few of the 80s winters to be honest. the key seems to be when the deep south gets snow we do not.

Yes I only like NW winds in the summer (dry and hot, love that low humidity heat!)