LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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40s for the mean temperature, the month might be slightly below normal but that means a mean temperature around 40 or low 40s.
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Right, the most it will do is alternate between 40s and sunshine and 40s and rain. Maybe upper 30s on the coldest days. This winter hasn't been extremely cold either, it's been around normal to slightly below. No single digits at all and a few teens here and there. Progressing that same pattern to March means a mean temperature in the 40s.
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chilly in March is a lot different than chilly in January and February, we're talking 40s here, not 20s like we have right now.
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it would be nice to see during the day :-) -
I should have amended my post about the 48 hours, I meant that in regards to more precise details like snowfall amounts. For general details about where a storm will go, more like 96 hours.
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That makes me sad though I actually like sharing snow, that's what made storms like February 1983, January 1996 and PD2 2003 so special.
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96 to perhaps 120 hours for a general idea of where the storm will go, 48 hours for exact details like snowfall amounts in that region. This is based on my own experience with storms that hit here, 96-120 hours we have a general idea, and I'd emphasize the 96 hours over the 120 hours, and 48 hours to pin down exact details like snowfall amounts.
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fungi are quite amazing and highly intelligent (and form networks along with trees in the forest called the wood wide web.)
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The differences in snowfall averages makes me wonder if the real sign of CC are greater extremes. The snowfall drought we are in now is of a greater magnitude than we had in the 70s and 80s but so was the extreme of our snowier period between 2000 and 2018. So maybe our extremes are getting more extreme in both directions.
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even if it does get a little cooler for the beginning of next month, it probably won't get lower than around 40 for highs, it's March by then.
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The memory of it didn't last long, unlike March 2001, because the year after we got clobbered by a much bigger storm, the 30 inch plus behemoth January 2016 (my favorite snowstorm of all time), 30+ inches of snow here, 12 consecutive hours of true blizzard conditions, snowfall for 30+ hours.
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Probably comparing it to that because it was the Euro in both cases who had it first.
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they have now been saying that a warm IO is hostile to east coast snowstorms too'
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anyone who says the models are never wrong is in denial, they have been wrong plenty. But if you can't admit when they are wrong, you're not going to be open to help fix them either.
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no one anywhere called for an HECS but many were calling for a significant storm at least, including well respected Cornell graduating meteorologist on our major networks.
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it's not just one storm it's been the entire season and it's been happening for several years now as Chris pointed out. As met fan said the models should not be run past 5 days or at the very least don't make them accessible to the public after 5 days. Meteorology isn't an exact science.
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la ninas have become more common haven't they? that explains why New England remains more resistant to snowfall decline but doesn't explain what's been going on down south this season.
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The question is what changed so greatly between 2017-18 and 2018-19? Was that when the marine heatwaves in the West Pacific began or just when they reached the threshold to cause the Pacific jet to interfere with the spacing of shortwaves?
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The single greatest predictor of the weather is...... persistence. Unless something game changing happens, expect more of the same.
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it's born out of being cautious and models failing multiple times. You've seen the bipolar attitude on this forum, it's safer not to trust anything you see until it's within the *certain* range.
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But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out. At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.
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all the most extreme changes are positive none are negative?
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From the assessments this looks to be a Tunguska sized event, so not an ELE but it can be pretty dangerous if it hits a populated area.
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Those things have caused megatsunamis in the past, read about how Chesapeake Bay was formed....
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Not as cold as it has been though. 40s with sunshine are pretty tolerable right now. Might even hit 50s a few times.
