LibertyBell

Lows:EWR: 8 (1963)NYC: 8 (1963)LGA: 9 (1963)JFK: 9 (1968) Interesting these were both cold and dry winters here..... -AO/+PNA pattern that Don mentioned was a suppressive pattern after mid February in both cases?? Also did the following storm produce snow here, Tony?? 1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

How long is that sharp cold snap in early March going to last, Tony? From the 10 day forecast I saw, it's supposed to be a two day cold snap in the low to mid 30s and then back to the 40s starting on 3/4?

snowicane, February 2010?

I'm sure you understand that it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall. Especially so on the margins (which Don also stated in an earlier post in this thread.) But even in the middle of winter it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall. Snow is much more of an anomalous event than average temperatures are.

No you can find them yourself and they will be a hell of a lot more accurate than this cartoonish snowfall map from the 6z GFS. Even just going by climo for temps will be a lot more accurate than this. There isn't going to be snow here for at least a week, 0% chance.

Hopefully the last morning in the teens for the rest of the season. It's actually been in the low 20s here.

it's low 50s not 60s, don't know where he got 60s from.

long range maps, plus 40s is normal for this time of year so it's not a tough forecast to make.

Probably low 50s, the following week looks colder (especially March 2nd) and then it bounces back to the 40s again a few days later so a short but sharp cold shot? On a positive note, today was the first morning I noticed the sky getting brighter before 6 am here!

What's the record in this regard for JFK, Chris? Has any winter had 30 or more such days-- maybe 1976-77? Wild, our last truly cold winter (20 or more such days) was 2017-18... and how great were 2013-14, the entire 2002-03 to 2004-05 period and 1995-96 and 1993-94.

Yes, it was the wind that made it feel so cold. We didn't even have any single digit temperatures. We weren't that cold by average temperatures either, weren't all 3 months above normal at JFK?

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

Records:Highs:EWR: 80 (2018)NYC: 78 (2018)LGA: 79 (2018)JFK: 65 (2018) we were left out of this warmth over here..... honestly, I've seen warmer days in both January and February when we've hit the 70s here (most notably January 6, 2006, on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard.)Lows:EWR: 6 (1959)NYC: 5 (1968)LGA: 6 (1968)JFK: 5 (1968) 1967-68 was a very cold and dry winter, similar to this one.

That's very low! Mine reads 25% right now. For the summer, try to keep it under 50% as that is the threshold for dust mites....

I dont like averages anyway, I feel like they dumb down the finer details which are more important. I like measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

I like this, measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

But it's hard to find a hotter summer at Newark than 1993, that was a historic heatwave with 9 days over 100 including 5 in a row. We haven't seen that since, they also set the record for most 90 and 100 degree days then (new records set in 2010.) We definitely need that dry pattern and I feel like we'll beat those records from the 90s and early 10s, with our new dry pattern. The consistency of the westerlies since last year is very telling.

Then there is no point keeping averages at all though, because averages are all about comparing to the past, even if it's the 10 years ago past.

JFK is also too low at 0.1 probably because of the wind but see my above post, we had very dry air here and were under 8 hours of radar returns showing snow, but it only snowed for half that time or 4 hours. Half an inch is more accurate, but in the end it doesn't matter much.

Walt, JFK only measured 0.1 probably because of that darned wind, but I'm not complaining, it was at most 0.5 inch anyway. Besides the air was really dry here and we had hours of virga when we were under radar returns for snow and nothing was falling. We had 4 hours of snow here but were under radar returns of snow for 8 hours.

the summers were most definitely hotter in the 90s and the early 10s. I go by number of 90 and 100 degree days, not minimum temperatures, which are more a function of humidity not heat (unless the high temperature is also very high.) Why is JFK so much warmer, must be the westerly wind, this is a good sign for a hot and dry summer too.

We dont care about 1927 because none of us were here in 1927. We care about the period of time we grew up in-- and by the way I always compare the current malfunctioning teams vs the great 1990s Yankees and how much more complete those teams were (didn't strike out much, hit the ball to al fields, higher contact rate, etc.) And for the record, the 1998 Yankees would have absolutely --DESTROYED-- the 1927 Yankees.

Agree we need a static baseline and I would pick either 1951-80 or 1961-90 or average out those two.

Cold is fine, the wind really sucks.

I have a better idea. Let's use the 30 year average we are all used to, from the era we grew up in. 1951-80 or 1961-90 or both averaged out.