LibertyBell

No you can find them yourself and they will be a hell of a lot more accurate than this cartoonish snowfall map from the 6z GFS. Even just going by climo for temps will be a lot more accurate than this. There isn't going to be snow here for at least a week, 0% chance.

Hopefully the last morning in the teens for the rest of the season. It's actually been in the low 20s here.

it's low 50s not 60s, don't know where he got 60s from.

long range maps, plus 40s is normal for this time of year so it's not a tough forecast to make.

Probably low 50s, the following week looks colder (especially March 2nd) and then it bounces back to the 40s again a few days later so a short but sharp cold shot? On a positive note, today was the first morning I noticed the sky getting brighter before 6 am here!

What's the record in this regard for JFK, Chris? Has any winter had 30 or more such days-- maybe 1976-77? Wild, our last truly cold winter (20 or more such days) was 2017-18... and how great were 2013-14, the entire 2002-03 to 2004-05 period and 1995-96 and 1993-94.

Yes, it was the wind that made it feel so cold. We didn't even have any single digit temperatures. We weren't that cold by average temperatures either, weren't all 3 months above normal at JFK?

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

Records:Highs:EWR: 80 (2018)NYC: 78 (2018)LGA: 79 (2018)JFK: 65 (2018) we were left out of this warmth over here..... honestly, I've seen warmer days in both January and February when we've hit the 70s here (most notably January 6, 2006, on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard.)Lows:EWR: 6 (1959)NYC: 5 (1968)LGA: 6 (1968)JFK: 5 (1968) 1967-68 was a very cold and dry winter, similar to this one.

That's very low! Mine reads 25% right now. For the summer, try to keep it under 50% as that is the threshold for dust mites....

I dont like averages anyway, I feel like they dumb down the finer details which are more important. I like measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

I like this, measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

But it's hard to find a hotter summer at Newark than 1993, that was a historic heatwave with 9 days over 100 including 5 in a row. We haven't seen that since, they also set the record for most 90 and 100 degree days then (new records set in 2010.) We definitely need that dry pattern and I feel like we'll beat those records from the 90s and early 10s, with our new dry pattern. The consistency of the westerlies since last year is very telling.

Then there is no point keeping averages at all though, because averages are all about comparing to the past, even if it's the 10 years ago past.

JFK is also too low at 0.1 probably because of the wind but see my above post, we had very dry air here and were under 8 hours of radar returns showing snow, but it only snowed for half that time or 4 hours. Half an inch is more accurate, but in the end it doesn't matter much.

Walt, JFK only measured 0.1 probably because of that darned wind, but I'm not complaining, it was at most 0.5 inch anyway. Besides the air was really dry here and we had hours of virga when we were under radar returns for snow and nothing was falling. We had 4 hours of snow here but were under radar returns of snow for 8 hours.

the summers were most definitely hotter in the 90s and the early 10s. I go by number of 90 and 100 degree days, not minimum temperatures, which are more a function of humidity not heat (unless the high temperature is also very high.) Why is JFK so much warmer, must be the westerly wind, this is a good sign for a hot and dry summer too.

We dont care about 1927 because none of us were here in 1927. We care about the period of time we grew up in-- and by the way I always compare the current malfunctioning teams vs the great 1990s Yankees and how much more complete those teams were (didn't strike out much, hit the ball to al fields, higher contact rate, etc.) And for the record, the 1998 Yankees would have absolutely --DESTROYED-- the 1927 Yankees.

Agree we need a static baseline and I would pick either 1951-80 or 1961-90 or average out those two.

Cold is fine, the wind really sucks.

I have a better idea. Let's use the 30 year average we are all used to, from the era we grew up in. 1951-80 or 1961-90 or both averaged out.

I think it's changing right now, we're getting into a drier 60s type of pattern.

Now you know why I want climate modification. Hopefully we'll have a 1966 kind of summer and 1966-67 kind of winter.

Right, I like below normal for the first part of March too (low 40s is below normal for March), just not the way it is right now. Looking back at 2014 and 2015 which was the last time we had an EPO like this, we didn't snap to warm weather until around the 20th. March 2014 was really suppressed, that's the outcome we don't want. March 2015 was much snowier, but that came after a historically cold February that was really snowy. With that fast Pac flow, I feel like a March 2014 kind of outcome is more likely, but maybe we can get something in between those two Marches if the SE ridge can prevent suppression?

You need to move closer to the coast ;-)