LibertyBell

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

imagine the power that could be generated if turbines were forced by tides... 

wouldn't have to worry about whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining...  celestial mechanics --> tide cycle is always on, period.

Yes John!  I read that the tides have the power to provide energy for two earths, not just the one we have!

Gravitational energy-- there is no greater force in the entire universe!

It's the ultimate underdog story-- the weakest of the four fundamental forces built the entire universe!

Think about the possibilities of creating micro black holes and how much energy we could harvest from those!

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'd just prefer not to spend hours a week walking around with a garden house and/or sprinkler.  Not to mention increasing my water bill.

Mother nature does it better and more effectively when she cooperates.

It was hard to do any gardening in most of April because everything was soggy and wet.  I wish we had our normal rainfall patterns of the 80s and 90s when we got like 1 inch of rain every 10 days or so-- this is my ideal.  No 2 inch or 3 inch rainstorms, just an inch of rain (preferably at night) maybe 3 times a month.

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That second highs map to me for Tue says SE wind which keeps it cool east of the city. So it looks like there’ll be some kind of front around or strong onshore flow. Low 70s is still perfectly fine though if we get sun and avoid stratus from the onshore flow. 

Yes even sunny and 50s is fine lol

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'm guessing you don't like to garden?

I do and rain prevents it from happening.  I use a garden hose for all my watering needs.

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

TWC was my childhood. I was a kid in its heyday. Honestly I probably credit it partially with my intense passion for earth science. 

It was between TWC and AM Weather on PBS/Ch21 here.  Before I had cable, I used to watch AM Weather during the 90s.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The late great John Hope

The GOAT!

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pattern has switched to very dry.  No meaningful rain next 7-10 days at least.

Despite the blocking pattern warmth should out duel cool next few weeks.

 

Good, let it stay dry for many weeks.

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

5-22-02 was their latest freeze.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2002	05-22 (2002)	32	10-15 (2002)	31	145
2016	05-20 (2016)	32	10-11 (2016)	31	143
2008	05-20 (2008)	31	10-07 (2008)	31	139
2003	05-19 (2003)	32	10-03 (2003)	29	136
2023	05-18 (2023)	29	11-04 (2023)	32	169

wow in our warmest winter on record.... and even after that big heatwave in April!

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The heat index makes it feel just as bad if not worse on LI now with the southerly winds in the summer and regular 75+ dews. In Aug if anything the seabreeze just makes it feel worse here. 92F with a 76 dewpoint is 105 heat index, 96/71 is 104 heat index. So both in terms of actual heat are just as bad. The worst places in a heat wave now are probably the north shore of LI/much of NYC that still heat up before the seabreeze kicks in and still terrible humidity, and less chance of the T-storms that often fire inland and die before reaching the coast. 

Like Bluewave says though it's only a matter of time before we get a big heat dome here like the rest of the country's seen where we all likely get well over 100 and some places like EWR reach 110. 

Definitely-- I remember 2010 when we had 3 100+ degree days on the south shore but it was nice and dry and the heat really did not feel bad at all because it was so nice and dry!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 18th was the 5th latest freeze on record for FOK.

Data for May 18, 2023 through May 18, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	28
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	29
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	29
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	30
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	30
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	31
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	31
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	31
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	33
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	33
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	33
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	34
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	34
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	35
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	35
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	35
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	36
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	36
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	37
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	37
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	37
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	38
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	38
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	39
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	39
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	40
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	40
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	41
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	42
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	42
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	43
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	43
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	44
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	45
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	46

Thanks, Chris, what's their latest freeze on record-- May 31st I think?

and wow 42 degrees is VERY cold for JFK on May 18th!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sometimes we just have to do the best we can with the options we have at any given time. Natural gas is much better for air pollution than coal is. I used to live a few miles from the Natural gas generating electricity station in Island Park. It was much better for the air quality than having a coal plant would have been. 
 

Between 2005 and 2016, the shift away from coal saved an estimated 26,610 lives and 570 million bushels of crops

https://gpsnews.ucsd.edu/shutdown-of-coal-fired-plants-in-u-s-saves-lives-and-improves-crop-yields/

 

we are now building wind farms that will power millions of homes though.  I think wind is the future of energy for us and it will happen quicker than many think.

The long island wind farm project is quite extensive!

6 hours ago, etudiant said:

Guess nobody told people in India that their fertility was under threat.

That said, the catastrophic slump in birth rates is pervasive across the industrialized world, with South Korea and Taiwan in the van, but Europe, North America, Japan and China all well below sustainable fertility levels.

Maybe the fault is of the media,which push unreasonable life style expectations, or maybe its aliens.

In any case, it is not a fossil fuel problem, the Ultra Orthodox and the Amish in the US both seem to have maintained historic fertility rates while surrounded by the near childless..

I mean it's a really good thing for the fertility rate to go down in some of these countries.  The extremely high and horrible rates of air pollution in India are both because of an extremely high population and widespread use of vehicles.  There's horror stories coming out of there of people having constant headaches and burning eyes every day because the air pollution is so bad and the only time they were able to see the mountains was during the pandemic.

The projections say that with lower air pollution the life expectancy in India would be 12 years more.... that's very sad and very scary.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. 
 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

 

 

 

wow how cold did it get down here last May?

we've been having a lot of these since 2020.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
4	1994	102	0
5	2006	101	0
6	2023	100	2
-	1998	100	0
-	1978	100	0
-	1961	100	0
-	1960	100	0
-	1956	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	108	0
2	2001	105	0
-	1993	105	0
-	1966	105	0
-	1953	105	0
-	1949	105	0

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105

Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with  a sea breeze?

If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze.

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just about or less than an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks back to 4/4 for a large part of the region.

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

fires get rid of that stuff 

Good point!  Burn on!

I actually don't mind fires unless they burn down someone's house or hurt someone.  Brush fires are natural and should occur.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's the old brush from last fall that's a threat and the weeds and other ground cover have not come up yet so there's alot of fuel ready to go...which is why you see most fire statements in April/May vs June or July

why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff?

it's an eyesore anyway

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

 

Chris is this it for the cold weather or will it come back again after this warmup?

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.
 

I have a question that seems like it should have a simple answer but it probably doesn't.

Why is it that it's still relatively easy to get into the upper 30s and sometimes even mid 30s in mid to late April and once in awhile even early May, but our last freezing temperatures are still occurring in late March now? Talking about the airports and close in suburbs like western Long Island.  Why haven't we seen any freezing temperatures happen after 4/15 with all these late season cold outbreaks we've had since 2020?  When was the last time one of the city airports or the Park had a low of freezing or below after 4/15? After 4/20?

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Makes sense-there's so many other sources for weather now.   They had a monopoly from 1980-2000

and they are owned by IBM a corporate tyrant, who also bought WeatherUnderground and started charging people large sums of money to upload data from PWS.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that's because fossil fuel companies lied to everyone about plastic

There is ONE benefit to fossil fuels and it's a very interesting one.  Lower fertility being linked to fossil fuels.  Wrap your head around that one....

It would be some kind of poetic justice if people couldn't have kids anymore because of fossil fuels LOL

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

All I'm saying is that it is going to take many decades or even more to change.  Every single thing in our lives depends on fossil fuels in some way.  Even things that are "green", at some point in the process fossil fuels play a big role in that so called "green" product.  Good luck trying to change it any time soon.  

Even if you think of one of your hobbies, fishing.  The pole, line, hook, lures; fossil fuels were used somewhere in the process in order to make all of that, ship it, etc.  That is one tiny thing that would need wholesale changes.  

That's a condemnation on the sustainability of society more than anything.  Especially plastic-- which are now being found in our own bodies.

I wonder when people finally realize that the end of humanity is coming, how they will think.

Species usually peak just before there's a huge population crash.  I can envision our population being cut by 90% by 2100. 

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's coming

They even talked about it last year citing the high death toll in Europe from heat waves (I think the heat waves get named there?)

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I wonder how many watch TWC now vs 30 yrs ago--has got to be 1/5 of what is used to be....

it's a gimmick now, mostly for gardeners and travel.  They should rename it to The Recreational Channel.