LibertyBell

5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Are they? Feels like we've had many that have lasted into May in the past several years, espec with these crazy blocking patterns. Memory could be hazy trying to remember earlier times tho!

We're getting more blocking patterns in April and May, but I'm not sure if they are back door fronts.  With temps dropping into the mid-upper 30s, they seem more like pseudowinter type arctic fronts.  Instead of getting those in the winter when we're supposed to be getting them, we're getting them in spring now.  But we're getting these overperforming warm days too, like last April we had two days in the 90s and this is now our third day in the 80s for the month.

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Compressional heating high of 88, courtesy of the sea breeze 

“Only” 80 now.

Nice! Only 2 shy of 90

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

85/66 now. We summa. Would really suck to live in New England! 

this is July weather now.

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

seabreeze city 

where? it's well up into the 80s in SW Nassau

Just now, JonClaw said:

I love it when heat overperforms. 

you knew it would happen when yesterday way overperformed too

EWR: 91 (1974)
NYC:89 (1974)
LGA: 88 (2017)
JFK: 85 (2017)

all of these records could be broken today!

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

They certainly have a better late March to mid May climate as they often avoid BDCFs and the associated cloudy and easterly flow. If our winters continue to stink then I'd agree that they have a better overall climate considering their better Spring weather and as we both roast in the summer and have similar Autumns. 

back door fronts are thankfully becoming less common here too, they usually happen in early April and not this late in the month

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Up to 81 at my station now.

yeah we're not susceptible to back door fronts like eastern New England is.

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

87 at NYC.

JFK also well over 80, Don?

I hit 84 here

27 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Incredible day!

Bring it on let the weenies burn!

Yeah it's this time of year I'm happy we're not in New England lol

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

I often wish we had DC’s climate, or at least much less susceptible to BDCF’s.

82 here.

It wont cool down here until after peak heating, well into the 80s here on the south shore

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Picked up .39" rainfall overnight.  Dare I say "needed" rainfall.  Topsoil was getting dry. 

Very warm and humid start to the day.

Night time rainfall is great  especially when it doesn't interfere with day time heat!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The usual warm spots from around Philly  NE into NJ should get very close to 90° ahead of the backdoor this afternoon. 
 

I think even coastal areas will easily make it to 80 or higher.  The temperatures are being underforecast.  We are already at 77 here and it's not even 9:30 AM yet LOL

39 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Anyone familiar with the Ambient weather WS2902?

 

I have the original monitor and it won't connect to wifi any longer (seems ambient disabled that functionality and you have to buy a new monitor of course).

Anyhow... I just set it up outside in a less than ideal location but there was already a hole from a tree stump so I went with it. Temp dew etc should all be fine but wind will be less since there a tree 20 feet to its west and it also gets shade from that after 5 pm so the insolation and UV will be skewed.

Temp and dew will be fine since not direct sunlight. So trade offs I suppose.

 

Anyhow... .15 inches of rain last night in the bucket.

It sounds like a repackaged LaCrosse weather station.  I've bought from Ambient in the past and that's what I got.  I never used wifi though, because the wired connections update much faster.  

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

I'm gungho about JFK finally hitting 100 again too

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

1920

 

2021

Maybe we will have a nice dry summer-- dry through at least July with 3 inches or less rainfall each month would be great.

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Mid 60s already

Feels like early summer.

Firefly season will be here soon.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Oh man I know the feeling...cooking Sunday dinner tonight was brutal....dews in my kitchen must've reached 80+ from all the pasta I was cooking haha

Yeah it definitely felt like a sauna lol, and then it just gets stuck inside the house even when you open the windows.

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

If you're saying yuck with dews in the mid 50s...you have a very long summer ahead of you my friend 

I know!  I liked it much better with clear blue skies and low humidity lol.

Although it's Sunday and I was cooking food for the entire week today so the whole house got hot from that.

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18 inches with this one

Not many better ones to look at

It changed to rain for us, I still look at January 2016 as the peak of our winter storms.

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm looking back at old runs for the big Jan 2021 Blizzard. 

Coastal hugger though

There are better ones for us to look at.

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May remains on course to start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -5.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.920 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal).

 

It was actually humid today and the sky was milky white instead of pristine blue.

Yuck!

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year

I  think for the winter we might be looking at 1973-74 and 1983-84, warmer version of course.  Which means maybe a couple of minor/moderate 4-6 inch events, pac dominated and lack of blocking.

But I'm gung ho on a hot and dry summer (at least dry June and July-- August could be wetter depending on TC affecting our region, but dry otherwise.)

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Ok JB lol

No it doesn't mean next winter will be good, but the hot and dry summer call looks pretty good right now.  It's already starting to dry out and heat is almost a given.

You can put 1983 in this list too, so 1983, 1995 and 2010 analogs are good for the summer.