psv88

Usually you take a blend. It worked out last weekend. There is a reason the NWS heavily leans on the NBM (national blend of models). The NBM does not contain the ICON, but it does contain the UKIE and Euro. Here, the synoptic pattern with respect to the primary matters alot with respect to the mid-levels, so the GFS has more weight than normal when it comes to mid level warming, etc. When track is the same, follow the Euro/Mesos for thermals. When the synoptics differ, then GFS gets more weight than usual in my book. Its picking up on the earlier transfer and other models have been trending that way as well. Once the models agree more on the development of the secondary, the GFS thermals go out the window and we lean on the mesos.

My gut is telling me that we get 10" out here plus a bunch of sleet. All depends on the secondary. If it pops early and south like the GFS has it, we will get 18"...

Agreed.

we arent getting screwed...major storm coming for all.

Point and click has me at 17 inches in suffolk, i think that's way too high...my best guess for here is 9-10" of snow/ice. Upton is being very aggressive. They must be banking on the early transfer and wrap around.

True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound.

Boxing day was not 100% snow. I even mixed briefly in western nassau where i was living at the time.

You mean when the GFS was the only model showing any snow for last weekend, the EURO was way offshore, and we all got snow?

*48

If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon.

Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient

49 today, forecast was 44

People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job.

Not worried about the RGEM. NAM got cooler, as did the Euro and Ukie. We are locked in for 6-12" areawide.

You will

Yes, that seems aggressive to me. I wouldnt go above 10-11" for the beaches right now. Maybe when get more clarity on the secondary...

My Holly is storm total map, Upton is until 7 pm Sunday...apples and oranges

FWIW the Icon and GFS dont get above 25, and the Ukie also doesnt get above 30. Nice cold storm!

Just dug into the 12z Euro surface temps v 0z...temps from my area and most of long island came down about 1-2 degrees. PredictWind app is pretty cool for this. So the models are clearly picking up on the low level code. Other than the south fork, i dont see any plain rain. My area never gets above 30, and even the beaches of nassau and western suffolk never get above 32.

i really think we have narrowed down close to a final solution. The only real loose ends are the development of the secondary low and its location to the coast. Thats the difference between 9 inches and 12" + for many, more so than mixing

i think this system is colder. Half the storm will be in the teens

6-12 is a great call in my view. In my view this is much simpler call than we are making it. 6-12”, more or less depending on mixing. Temps below freezing throughout

The actual surface temps seem colder. In my opinion it was a trend in the right direction

Euro looks colder to me for the coast

Correct, its about trends. The north ticks have stopped for now. I would count on some sleet in the NYC metro areas and SW/S/SE. But rain is also off the table.