psv88

Upton has me at 13:1 ratio. No more Kuchera please. Kuchera up around 15:1

On the island it has gotten snowier each run. This storm is toast NW for big totals.

There has been more qpf each run...

NAM is a foot+ from central nassau on east. 16+ or so from the nassau/suffolk line on east, pretty strong model consensus here now.

NAM cut back for just about everyone

flurries

Not true. Ukie, GFS shifted west and RAP...

Don’t have it to post, but I believe it’s similar to GFS

The latest RGEM also ticked east.

Exactly. The NAM has been all over the place. Euro/GFS blend is the way to go now, and they are very similar.

Will all melt this week

Looks almost identical to 18z

You need the heavy snow rates and strong winds...8" of snow falling over 18 hours wont get you 1/4 mile visibility. The heavy snow bands are still modeled to cut off at the suffolk nassau border.

Probably just Suffolk. All of Suffolk is locked in for 12+ on all models now. Nassau still on the bubble

I still like 15" for us, i dont think 2 feet is happening

wish i had gotten the snow blower

holyshit

Yea, we are solidly in MECS territory out here and only 25 miles from HECS. We have another 24 hours before go time, so we will absolutely see shifts that could get us into that sweet spot...or we could shift back to down. But if trends continue, the population centers could be in line for a big dog

Li nuked from nassau/queens line on east. 1" QPF, similar to the CMC, 2" by the forks

Eh, you need visibilities below 1/4 mile for 3 straight hours and 35 mph winds, that's not gonna happen absent a massive shift west. The twin forks could do it, but west of central suffolk i dont see it.

News12 going 6-9" for nassau, 9-12" western suffolk, 12-18" Central suffolk and east, up to 2 feet.

You are a lock for 18" IMO

Good luck NE crew.

GFS finally gets warning snows into all of suffolk county.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 425 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ078-080-177-179-280530- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 425 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, with near blizzard conditions possible. Winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$