Round Hill WX

Snow has begun in Round Hill. 35/20.

Snowing in Round Hill. Radar looks decent actually. 35/29

2.98” for the event in Round Hill. 6.70” for the month of October. My grill blew across the deck tonight. Spooky. Onto snow season.

0.49" today. 1.23" for the month in Round Hill.

If it makes you feel better I was expecting 6-8” 24 hours ago. I have puddles.

All rain now in Round Hill. Not one model had rain here. Oh well.

It has snowed all day in Round Hill but temp was 33-34 with light accumulation on the grass. 32 now with sleet. Huge bust.

GFS steady. I like my spot here in Round Hill. 4-7” easy.

Steady, accumulation freezing rain in Round Hill. Temp just hit 31. 6.25” snow/sleet total today. Brings me to an even 30” for the season.

6.25” of snow/sleet in Round Hill. Light snow/sleet currently with a temp of 28. Wind is out of the southeast.

Being just east of you I like hearing this. 6" is definitely doable.

4.3” in Round Hill. Light snow 27/25.

HEAVY snow in Round Hill. 1.75” in the last hour! This is awesome!

This western band is legit. Pouring snow in Round Hill. Radar is prime to deliver a couple more inches.

Some great pictures this morning. @Bob Chill that is a monster buck man! Winding down here in Round Hill. Measured 7.1” I got all my shoveling done and looking forward to an afternoon of beer and football.

2.9” in Round Hill. 27/25.

1” in Round Hill. 28/26.

Light snow has begun in Round Hill. 31/20.

The STJ low pressure is well sampled so I wouldn't focus on it. Instead, the vort that is currently modeled to push the storm off the SE coast is just now in the area of the Arctic Ocean/Alaska. That area is data sparse. Even satellite data is limited due to the cold temperatures that can interfere with satellite data ingestion. This vort will be the focus....

I tried to attach hours 54-102 of the 6z GFS plot I posted above, but it exceeds the amount of MBs allowed. But if you go to TT and GIF between those hours, you can really see the dynamics occurring. The wave breaking around 60W is the initial confluence. It slightly relaxes as the STJ storm is moving along the GOM, which gives it a chance to gain latitude, but then the northern stream energy comes flying in to finish the job. You were correct in asking about the high pressure because it is "blocking" the storm, but the mechanism keeping the high so stoutly in place are the items I mentioned. IMO, to get this storm to shift north, the vort energy diving into Quebec will have to come in delayed or further north. For that to happen, the tropospheric wave break will need to be less intense. Also, there has been discussion about better ridging out west(Boise ID rule) that could help. In theory that is true, however, the retrograding wave break will to be the driver once the storm reaches the east coast. I hope you get to use your snow blower!

It’s not the high pressure that is our problem. It is the 2 features circled. The energy diving into Quebec is pushing our storm eastward. The other circle over ~60W is a wave breaking tropospheric piece of energy which is creating the confluence over the northeast, also shunting the southern stream LP eastward without latitude gain.