TriPol

The GFS is on some premium quality stuff this morning:

Well, howdy there...

Don't we want a high pressure over the aleutians this time of year?

Not a drop in Bayonne, NJ.

This went way further north than originally predicted.

Stick a forky in it. We’re not getting more than an inch.

We've had AN Octobers for years without any snow. I need snow. Give me snow! I'm addicted to that white powdery substance in a way I can't describe! Oh wait..

It's not getting any warmer than the 60s today. Low-mid 70s all week.

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

I really enjoy the sounds of the rain at night. So quiet and peaceful.

I've been involved in meteorology for decades. I have never seen a storm rapidly intensify like this. Would be interested to see SSTs after Lee has passed.

If this doesn't verify, it'll be more disappointing than Viennetta ice cream.

A little pocket of 31.5-32.5C water temps. Basically 90 degree water temps.

I don't remember much about the preceding winters, so that can't be good.

I'd wager a hefty sum that the likelihood of a landfall event in the Florida Panhandle is rather minimal, a hypothesis that I find somewhat at odds with the current projections from the National Hurricane Center. Since the case of Hurricane Charlie, Gulf-originating hurricanes to veer westward in their tracks, particularly when their initial trajectories are not aimed at Texas, Louisiana, or the Mississippi/Alabama coastline. This westward bias is often less pronounced when a robust anticyclonic system is situated over Florida, effectively serving as a protective barrier for the state's western coastline. One could argue that the NHC's forecasting methodology could benefit from a reevaluation of these recurrent patterns, especially in the context of recent advancements in ensemble forecasting and data assimilation techniques.

The trajectory of a tropical cyclone is predominantly governed by the ambient steering flow, a term that encapsulates the mean environmental wind field in which the cyclone is embedded. Deviations in this steering flow, such as an anomalously robust westerly component, can induce a corresponding easterly shift in the cyclone's track. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic systems also exert a significant influence on cyclone trajectory. The spatial orientation and dynamical strength of a high-pressure system situated to the north or northeast of a cyclone can act as a steering mechanism, directing the cyclone on a more westerly course. Conversely, a weakening or lateral displacement of the anticyclonic system may permit a more easterly trajectory for the cyclone. Upper-level atmospheric features, including troughs and ridges, further modulate cyclone tracks. An approaching trough from the westerly direction can effectively "capture" the cyclone, inducing a poleward and often eastward deflection from the originally forecasted path. It's imperative to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction models. These uncertainties stem from various sources, including but not limited to, initial condition errors, approximations in the model's physical parameterizations, and the intrinsically chaotic nature of the atmosphere. While the fidelity of these models generally improves as the temporal proximity to the event decreases, unforeseen deviations in the cyclone's track can still manifest. Oceanic parameters, such as sea surface temperatures and underlying currents, can also exert an indirect influence on cyclone trajectory by modulating its intensity. An intensifying cyclone may interact differently with the ambient steering flow and other synoptic to mesoscale features, thereby altering its anticipated path. As the cyclone nears a landmass, the increased surface friction can induce structural changes in the cyclone's inner core, which may, in turn, result in last-minute alterations to its track. Additionally, microscale geographical features, such as bays, inlets, and even expansive urban areas, can impart localized effects on the cyclone's trajectory, although these influences are generally subordinate to the aforementioned larger-scale dynamical factors.

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

Shades of Hurricane Elena 1985. As a former resident of Tampa, that storm was talked about A LOT in the late '80s and '90s.

That's going to move down. I think Tampa is the bullseye. Maybe just north.

The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!

A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside.

Incoming!

That was fun. Let's do it again sometime soon!

Coming down in buckets in Bayonne.

That better change come October or NYC area is in for another warm, snowless winter.