bjc3395

Any thoughts on May from a seasonal perspective? GWO looking increasingly favorable for mid-late May but from this range tough to make any definitive statements

Moisture return still looks shaky at best but the GFS convects for Thursday with reasonable temp profiles to sustain surface-based convection... With pretty strong shear profiles in W/NW OK. Additionally while the operational euro does not convect along the dry line, quite a few members of its ensemble do. It's worth watching... The euro also slows quite a bit (the operational member) with an ejection at like 12z Friday. If the wave slows another 12 hours or so, a pretty big Friday event would be on the table (details still needing sorted however).

Not terribly surprising but drought removal through May is expected through all of the Plains and much of the EML source region. I’m not sure if this will translate to a fun spring but I’d say buckle up, we could be in for a fun season. When was the last season where we were relatively drought free heading *into* the season? 2010? 2016?

SPC just put out a day 6 for the event, mentioning tornadoes and damaging winds. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of a Wwd shift but I don’t think this will be all that chaseable regardless. Should be pretty messy.. but definitely has some decent severe potential. The other region forum has not a peep about it lol. The winter wx weenies, I tell ya.

Definitely increasing potential somewhere in the LA/AR and points east area for organized severe weather. Looking like a robust wave will interact with instability as significant cyclogenesis takes place. Shall keep an eye out on this one.

This one won’t garner a ton of interest anytime soon but I’m becoming intrigued of a robust severe weather event happening across Louisiana into states to its east next weekend. General pattern progression favors the increase of low level moisture with decent instability on tap by Saturday next week. A significant wave looks to take on a neutral-negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains, inducing substantial cyclogenesis as a result. Won’t really go into more details.. but this one looks to target my forecast/WWA AOR, so I’m a bit peeped for that.

Ha, I asked him to support the claim that this year could be dreadfully bad, and I got nothing. *shrug*. I concur... if 2015 had more of the EML we have seen lately, that is an all-time great chasing season.

Contrary to what I’m seeing from seasonal/subseasonal forecasters such as Victor Gensini and Alex Gold... I’m skeptical to assume this year will be below average (or plainly bad). I see many folks assuming it’s gonna be a rough year, but I’m super skeptical of where we are in the state of forecasting long term. Im gonna guess -yes guess because that’s all we really do in this realm of meteorology - that we see an average year counts wise, but I think a good amount of that activity should feature the Plains, making for an AA chaser year. Reasons: this is the first winter I can recall recently of consistent PAC NW systems and the repeated swinging south of the storm track has kept us relatively drought free in the Plains, and the EML source region getting relief is a welcome sign as well. This is the most promising winter pattern I’ve seen in a long time. How much does that impact our spring severe? No idea - but it definitely helps to have soil moisture on our side, as it should alleviate intense mixing that can happen otherwise. As for the base state of the atmosphere, we shall see. I’m a little encouraged by what I’m seeing but.. I also remain curious about what, if any, correlation there is between our changing climate and the severe seasons we’ve seen post-2010/2011. Our record size is just too small to make any firm claims, anything else is guesswork or scientifically speculative at best, and that applies to research trying to correlate tornado occurrences with ENSO and other relatively small-sample oscillations. So I remain skeptical of the claims this year will suck and frankly don’t see much of an argument either direction. I think it remains to be seen just what we get, but we should have a better idea by mid March. If we could get a 2015/16 style year, I’d be stoked.

Not many. I see some mid-upper 60s over upper 50s (even low-60s Td). That said, it has nothing to do with how far east the dry line surged. The thermal axis will always lie behind the dry line.. that's just how it works. What you're seeing is the effect of widespread cloud cover by the GFS. The GFS has the entire warm sector underneath 85+% cloud cover, restricting temperatures in the mid 60s. There definitely will be a portion farther south that gets completely capped by 850mb warming. However, I am pretty convinced there's going to be surface-based severe storms somewhere along the dry line in W OK. The only way this doesn't happen is if widespread cloud cover mutes the diurnal heating cycle, suppressing the dry line circulation.. I question the GFS cloud cover output in this regard, even though widespread cloud cover is a possibility. I would expect it Saturday and Saturday night more so than Sunday..

Definitely worth watching, the wind profiles over the warm sector and along the dry line are extremely impressive (at least on the GFS, haven't checked the ECMWF). Latest GFS even cracks 60 F Td into SW OK, with pretty solid early March lapse rates to boot. The problem isn't really the moisture as much as it seems to be the heating. Widespread cloud cover, I'm guessing, would be likely on the heels of that strong frontal push into the GoM. Neat as always to get a system like this early in the season, but as is typical, it comes on the heels of a strong cyclone and anticyclone pairing to the east, driving moisture out into the GoM just before.. Hard to see much to chase on Sunday. Going to follow, but plenty will need to be overcome for this to be anything noteworthy.

Sunday could be an interesting day in the plains. Not sure the moisture will make it but.. We will see. The shear will be there, I'm just not entirely sure with that lead system that we will have much moisture to work with. Probably worth watching.

knew of GFS ensemble and CFS, I've been using euro on accuwx but they don't have the ENS I believe. Euro ensemble, at least on a very basic 24 hour interval similar to what pivotal/COD offer, is available on the euro site for free but it's very basic. Anyway it shows a solution further south than what GEFS depicts, with operational euro even further south. Very interesting and encouraging to see. Would not mind a repeat of Thursday's positioning if verified though I'd like to see better timing and less crap. Tl;Dr I wanna chase kansas, maybe Nebraska. Wouldn't mind OK but that would be a rather anomalous event.

Just curious, where can someone access the "weeklies" and ensemble data? Thanks!

Euro shows a pretty significant trough coming onshore hour 240... time to get excited?

Monday looks like a pretty robust event in OK/KS per 12z euro if you ask me.

I was referencing prior 0z and 12z euro

GFS (0z) a step in the right direction. Euro is where it's at. GFS *potentially* trending that direction.

Hahaha NAM wants winter back.

You are correct. I was referring to 12z GFS. 18z lags behind a bit so sfc response is delayed and the threat area shifts west, as you pointed out. This will undoubtedly change as the GFS shows poor run to run consistency.

Very interested in next Monday. GFS shows a pretty potent setup over C OK. Euro lags behind.