weatherextreme

Steve McCauley 4 mins · This is a very dangerous situation for northern Dallas County. Doppler radar is indicating a DEBRIS BALL associated with a tornado between Royal Lane and Walnut Hill Lane just north of SMU. This DEBRIS BALL indicates trees and pieces of buildings that have been lifted into the air. Take shelter immediately if you are east of this storm !

Looks interesting

From FWD There are some divergences in the computer models from Sunday and beyond which I`ll address a little later, but there is actually really good agreement in the main feature which is the ejection of an upper trough across the Plains on Tuesday. Furthermore, all models indicate unseasonably high low level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s over the region Tuesday. Given the agreement and pattern recognition, there is a fair amount of confidence in saying there will be a dryline and a potential for severe convection in the region Tuesday. Right now the uncertainty is where the dry line will set up and whether it will be west or east of the I-35 corridor. Obviously a western position would bring more of the area into the fold for severe weather, while an eastern position would be more typical of early Spring and limit any severe threat to our eastern counties. Models seemingly are favoring a western dryline position, but this doesn`t quite align with climatology and lowers confidence in delineating a risk area at this time. What is certain is that there will be ample wind shear and sufficient instability in place ahead of the dry line so it warrants our attention over the next few days.

From the local news http://www.kvue.com/weather/severe-weather-causes-house-fire-rips-off-roof-of-southeast-austin-building/409948355

Which portions are showing up?

A little further out, but this looks pretty interesting too.

From Dr Forbes MONDAY 5/16 The potential exists for a substantial severe thunderstorm threat in the Central and Southern Plains, but computer models differ enough that I'll hold off on a specific forecast for now.