Phillifan22

Anxiously awaiting a final report here. Have seen some pretty high totals on twitter.

Southern CNY near Oneonta getting pasted. Last night compared to this morning in Laurens NY

I think Kuch method will do better in general with this event, catching the sub 10:1 ratios occurring until the wrap around precip starts with ratios climbing to 12-15:1. Crush job for the hills south of 90, while the Mohawk Valley and other low lying areas south of the Tug/Adks could get hurt by downslope flow Friday morning, but its tough to say at this point.

12z Para/FV3 pounding the Capital Region as well, as Wolfie stated earlier! Fingers crossed!

18z NAM giving me a nice amount near Albany!!!

What you’ve noted is not a coincidence. Studies have shown lake effect tends to weaken during the day (especially in late fall and early spring when daylight is longer and the sun angle is higher). This weakening is caused by a decrease in the temperature contrast as the air above and around the lake (as well as the land) warm. It goes back to the fundamental of lake effect, cold air over a warm lake.

Just saw a report of 10” in Hannibal. Likely the hotspot of the event!

I’m probably crazy but I think BUFs snowfall maps from yesterday might be pretty accurate. The long duration of the event and ratios will really lead to some higher accumulations than expected. Which combined with the wiggly nature of the band could lead to some widespread 6-12”. Sure they might have been a bit too widespread, but nothing wrong with playing it safe.

Grew up in that general area, visit from time to time. Helped my in-laws do the lighting for a new coffee shop right in the middle of town a few months back. Has some good grocery stores and you’re not far from Oneida which has Lowe’s/Walmart too!

Hamilton and Caz are really nice towns that get their fair share of snow, whether it be upslope enhancement during LES or just synoptic snow! Might be a bit more expensive housing/land due to the private (and pricey) universities, but they are worth it.

Well, as has been stated, gfs/fv3 pretty much winning on this one. Quick moving storm that will only give me 2-3” in ALB. At least those of you in parts of Oswego Co will get hit! I’m quite jealous! My friends up at SUNY Oswego are excited they may finally get an event all to themselves!

Holding out hope for an 8+” storm in Albany, but I have very low confidence. Model spread is scary. Euro or bust lol.

Got 5.8” near Schenectady, NY. Nice clipper event. I think the max was in CNY north of I-90. As far as the next possible system, the Euro has been consistent, and its ensembles are tightening up, but there’s still plenty of disagreement amongst the models, so it’s far from a lock. Gonna be interesting to watch!

10:1 ratio snowmap.

12Z euro for Sun/Mon