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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.
  2. NJwx85
    The current movement is at 45 degrees which means it's still on a Northeasterly track. But just like during Winter, we have influence from the high over Maine/SE Canada. That's helping to funnel dry air down through Western New England and the current dewpoints are a reflection of that. If we were truly going to get an impact, it would be much more humid than it is now. The trough is too far East for us to get much rain.
  3. NJwx85
    The radar this morning reminds me of many coastal storms during the Winter that pounded the mid-atlantic while we smoked cirrus up here. You can blame the kicker coming out of the mid-west for the hard right turn.
  4. NJwx85
    Verbatim it would be a good shellacking. Especially since a lot of the guidance deepens the storm again once past OBX.
  5. NJwx85
    12z HMON pummels Long Island and the Jersey shore on Friday into Saturday with heavy rain and 40-50mph winds.
  6. NJwx85
    Don't think we need a separate thread for local impacts from Dorian but a lot of the latest guidance brings some direct impacts into the area, especially for Eastern sections.
  7. NJwx85
    It's not even worth discussing but a track up the coast like that has been seen many times including most recently Irene. Biggest threat with those storms is inland river flooding. You really need a track like the 12z GFS showed yesterday to get meaningful storm surge into the NYC area and New England.
  8. NJwx85
    LOL
  9. NJwx85
    The GFS develops the next wave coming off Africa. Takes a very similar track to Dorian. Ends up getting captured and rocketed up the coast lol
  10. NJwx85
    Some pics I took at the football game last night during the severe warned storms. https://twitter.com/mobforever2/status/1159797183815868417?s=12
  11. NJwx85
    Line swinging through NW NJ looking more and more impressive. Lots of CTG strikes showing up.
  12. NJwx85
    Models were way too low for today and I wonder if the same will happen for the rest of the week once we get past tomorrow.
  13. NJwx85
    Not bad, not a severe storm and no hail but lots of lightning, very heavy rain and gusty winds. Looks like more upstream. Should be an active night.
  14. NJwx85
    Nothing like that here yet, cycled back down again. Seems to be too much storm convergence. Absolutely pouring though with some good strikes.
  15. NJwx85
    Storm overhead appears to be cycling up, some 75dbz echos now showing up. Hoping for some decent hail to break streak.
  16. NJwx85
    Anyone got a hail indicator on the NE NJ cell moving into Bergen? Some 70dbz echos showing up.
  17. NJwx85
    Nasty cell headed towards me in extreme NW Bergen County. Really ominous looking sky to my Northwest with a greenish tint.
  18. NJwx85
    Very heavy convection overhead and nearby. Just had my first close lightning strike of the day. The radar almost looks like a PRE with the conveyor belt of tropical moisture.
  19. NJwx85
    Still a lot of CIN over the immediate coast but places 20 miles inland are now at 500-1000 J/KG with more as you head towards Philly. Potential exists over the next several hours for scattered to numerous pop up showers and thunderstorms. HRRR wants to keep the main focus mainly South of NYC but the HRDPS has more of a solid line moving through.
  20. NJwx85
    The convection over West Central PA looks like it's weakening. Most of the lightning strikes have been confined to a few cells South of I-80 and activity looks to be decreasing. I think at most we will see some widely scattered thunderstorms after 4PM but it doesn't look like a big deal to me. Most of the SBCAPE is currently South of 195 with CIN over Northern areas. With that being said, the latest HRRR does have SBCAPE increasing to around 1300 J/KG by 00z so we shall see if coverage is greater.
  21. NJwx85
    HDRGEM is quite active tomorrow.
  22. NJwx85
    Today is more of your typical Northeast severe threat with 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE to go along with ~30-40kts of bulk shear and somewhat decent lapse rates. Expect main storm mode to be linear with some multicellular development possible, especially South. One or two supercell structures are also possible. Main threats will be straight line wind damage and some hail. Cannot rule out an isolated brief tornado.
  23. NJwx85
    Low level lapse rates are quite high. Expect lots of small hail with any storms.
  24. NJwx85
    Completely cleared out here. Watch till 10pm. Looks like bombs away.
  25. NJwx85
    82 and hazy, hot and humid here.
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