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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The system crawled through Eastern NC, well inland. I remember watching the radar. By the time the center came onshore, the entire Southern quadrant had already been wiped out by dry air. The 00z Euro had a much different scenario, with an offshore track until reaching NJ. It's totally irrelevant anyway. I'm sure the Euro is going to spit out an entirely different track this run.
  2. NJwx85
    Dude, the center tracked inland for hundreds of miles. It might still have been classified as a category one storm by the time it reached up here but the winds were mostly offshore. Irene was a 12 hour monsoon. I know because I lived it.
  3. NJwx85
    Why is that irrelevant? Secondly, it doesn't make landfall until reaching Southern NJ. Big difference from storms like Floyd and Irene which made landfall in the Carolinas and then tracked inland.
  4. NJwx85
    It starts off slow until North of OBX then accelerates. Makes it from Cape May to the Gulf of Maine in 24 hours. That's a distance of like 750 miles. Simple math says on average ~31.25MPH.
  5. NJwx85
    Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same.
  6. NJwx85
    Not quite on the same level
  7. NJwx85
    More model porn
  8. NJwx85
    Hauling it on the way up
  9. NJwx85
    Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf.
  10. NJwx85
    Lots of wind and rain. It looks pretty fierce at 850mb. Need to see more panels between 216 and 240.
  11. NJwx85
    Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus.
  12. NJwx85
    Fun times ahead, maybe?
  13. NJwx85
    Looks like most of the rain for tonight will be centered further SW towards Philly and Southern NJ per the NAM and HRRR. The 06z RGEM was further NE.
  14. NJwx85
    "Back to back, and belly to belly"
  15. NJwx85
    LOL at the 00z Euro
  16. NJwx85
    Don't currently have access.
  17. NJwx85
    Both the 12z GFS and the ECMWF show an organized TC in the Southern Bahamas in the Day 9-10 time frame. Obviously a lot can change, including land interaction, but the setup is pretty intriguing for the East coast and New England with a well timed, relatively deep trough moving through the lakes. If the TC arrives early or the front speeds up, it could punt the storm OTS like the GFS. The Euro verbatim looks like it would be somewhat of a phase, similar to Floyd.
  18. NJwx85
    Most of Abaco Island and Grand Bahama are already destroyed. The only downside is that it could stop some of the recovery effort, but the damage is already done.
  19. NJwx85
    Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.
  20. NJwx85
    Euro in the Southern Bahamas Day 9
  21. NJwx85
    It helps that the models aren't really developing the system until it reaches the islands and by then it's really far South and West for a recurve OTS.
  22. NJwx85
    The track is almost identical to Wilma until it gets past Florida. System would have quite the PRE as well.
  23. NJwx85
    The Euro keeps 94L weaker much longer, but still eventually develops the system North of the islands in about a week. The question from here is does the ridge over the Eastern US hold and push the steer the storm towards Florida or does the incoming trough pull it North at the last minute?
  24. NJwx85
    It's the peak of Hurricane season. It would be abnormal if we didn't at least have a threat to track right now lol.
  25. NJwx85
    12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
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