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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Has to be something wrong with the data.
  2. NJwx85
    The 12z HWRF is on crack. No chance in the world this deepens again tonight.
  3. NJwx85
    Not going to survive to reach Bermuda. Firmly believe that the centers have decoupled with one going towards the Caribbean and the other on a general WNW trajectory.
  4. NJwx85
    Convection directly around the center has recovered somewhat. If hurricane force winds still exist, it's likely within this small blob, mostly to the East of the center. It's amazing to me that the forecast is still for this to remain a hurricane given that conditions will only be getting worse before they get better. The IR loop seems to also show that a swirl is occurring with the convection near 16N/60W. I think that could possibly be what is left of the mid-level center.
  5. NJwx85
  6. NJwx85
    99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.
  7. NJwx85
  8. NJwx85
    It's still so incredibly fascinating and humbling how 20-30kts of shear can essentially bring a category two hurricane to its knees in a matter of hours.
  9. NJwx85
    Officially issuing a "Naked Swirl Watch"
  10. NJwx85
    Actually hoping this is the case honestly. It's the most exciting thing left from a weather enthusiasts perspective with this system since it will most certainly re-curve if the current track continues. If one of the centers can make it into the Caribbean it would be quite a game changer.
  11. NJwx85
    The Northern half of the circulation is now nearly completely void of convection.
  12. NJwx85
    Shreddola. Not totally surprising given that a lot of the guidance severely weakened Jerry as it approached this area. I think it's completely possible that the centers will decouple, with one piece heading towards the Caribbean and the other center continuing on the NW track. Several model runs had this scenario, including a few Euro runs. If this were to occur, the upper air environment is a lot more conducive for development in the Caribbean.
  13. NJwx85
    Lots of shear today to the North and East of the center and increasing. If Jerry would have taken a track closer to Puerto Rico the upper air environment would have been much better.
  14. NJwx85
    Shear is going to be an issue once the storm passes Hispaniola in a few days. Currently 30-50kts in most of the Western Bahamas and increasing due to Humberto and associated trough interaction.
  15. NJwx85
    Still lots of basically untouched rocket fuel in the Caribbean.
  16. NJwx85
    The HWRF was the only guidance that significantly strengthened Jerry yesterday, which correlating with Levi's post makes sense for the Southerly track. Both the GFS and the Euro keep the system very weak and it looks like the 06z HWRF has short term strengthening followed by weakening.
  17. NJwx85
    So much for late September
  18. NJwx85
    Active times ahead
  19. NJwx85
    Did you see the 12z Euro? Sort of has the system make a loop before getting absorbed by another system coming out of the Eastern Caribbean? Also of note is the continued development of a major hurricane in the Central Atlantic (MDR).
  20. NJwx85
    I wouldn't sleep on this system. The 12z Euro keeps the system weak, but it doesn't have it following the weakness leftover from Humberto. I think that since the retrograde has largely been taken off the table and a more progressive track has become more likely, the Bermuda ridge should have more time to build in.
  21. NJwx85
    Caribbean cruiser on the 12z HWRF
  22. NJwx85
  23. NJwx85
  24. NJwx85
    We're probably going to get another TD by tonight. 8AM update gives 60% chance 48hrs, 90% chance within 5 days on the tropical wave out in the MDR. Models have it eventually following the weakness in the ridge left behind from Humberto but a lot can change. The 00z Euro takes the system very close to Barbuda this weekend.
  25. NJwx85
    If you're interested in Irene, you can watch this yourself and see how the system just basically rotted inland over Eastern NC. It had no core left by the time it made landfall anyway.
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