NJwx85

Recon is on a SW to NE pass right now and should get a good sampling of the possible secondary center shortly.

I think the recon data suggests that the center is attempting to relocate under the deep convection.

Current recon findings suggest a max intensity of just under 45kts right now under the deep convection to the West. Sure looks indicative to me of a secondary center.

The shear right now is only about 10-15kt. It's not perfect conditions but it's a lot better than the last few days.

Karen is looking better today and not just because of the increase in convection. Finally starting to see some good outflow, especially on the North and West of the center.

The 12z GFS keeps Karen around for about the next 4-5 days. Main reason for dissipation seems to be some Westerly shear thanks to the development of a highly amplified positively tilted trough by day 5 over the Western Atlantic extending into the Gulf.

Still seeing quite a bit of Northerly shear coming from the remnants of Jerry but the impacts from the ULL moving Westward in the Central Bahamas looks to be far enough away. As others have said, if Karen can somehow relocate further SW it would be in a better UL environment. I really don't see anything currently that would indicate that the system is flat lining. It's poorly organized but a center relocation would be a game changer IMO.

Outflow is incredible right now. The only impingement that I see towards more strengthening is some dry air on the NW side as seen on the water vapor imagery.

The 00z Euro has a pretty deep trough digging in days 9-10 that would likely break down the ridge and pull the system North as it approaches 40W. Hopefully that trough is overdone. The 06z GFS looks similar for the same time period.

A negative NAO developing into early October would certainly increase the chances of some tropical activity making it up this way.

A lot of the reason why Lorenzo recurves so early is due to the trough interaction with Jerry. It's really a shame from a weather/hurricane enthusiast that this has a greater than 99% chance of recurving well before any land interaction. It's great news for the islands which would have really been under the gun with such a strong system that far East. interestingly enough, the Euro shows development of another wave coming off Africa in a few days with what appears to be more of a pronounced ridge in place over almost all of the Atlantic.

As others have said, two prominent spins currently on radar. One just SW of St. Croix and the other embedded under deep convection South of PR. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

A relocation of the center a bit further SW would probably end up hurting Karen in the long run because the steering flow is still to the North and a track a bit further to the West would bring the center across the heart of PR. Some of the peaks in that part of the island are over 3000 feet.

Because that's one massive ridge. I'm also not completely buying that future Lorenzo is a lock for an early recurve. The odds and climo overwhelmingly suggest that it is, but that ridge means business. If it can somehow make it past 60W I think it gets trapped.

IR presentation looks great today. Probably already at TS strength or just a hair below right now. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1010.6mb/ 34.0kt Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 SEP 2019 Time : 130000 UTC Lat : 10:51:31 N Lon : 23:05:53 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.4 2.7 3.1

Karen should actually encounter some better UL conditions as it turns North towards PR.

A “Naked Swirl Warning” has now been issued. RIP Jerry.

Wow guess all my reverse psychology earlier really paid off lol.

It doesn't seem like a big deal because the system is already too far gone at this point, but that's a shift on day 5 of over 500 miles. It's like shifting from Charleston to Miami in a single run.

Still finds that pesky trough in the end, but still worth watching.

Trend continues

Yes I am grasping for straws, but look at the trend on the Euro for the last 24 hours. Slower with the trough, stronger with the ridge, resulting in a further South track.

The 12z HMON has what is left of Jerry near the Bahamas in about 5 days. I would say that has a better chance of happening at this point than a hurricane nearing Bermuda.

Watching this storm get ripped to shreds today has been far more interesting than anything else that has happened to Jerry since it was classified.