NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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If we do end up missing out on this one it doesn't mean there won't be another one following close behind it. I recall that a few days before the Boxing Day blizzard we narrowly missed getting slammed by a miller A. Sometimes these help to reinforce the pattern. It will be cold for part of next week here but nothing like the Plains.
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The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.
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I don't know how you could call that a large move towards the GFS. It was a move towards the old GFS but still just a glancing blow. Lets see what 00z has to say.
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The Euro has been consistently slower with the trough axis dropping down from the upper Plains. Until this timing issue is fully resolved there will be some uncertainty. The hope is that it is still poorly sampled as @Typhoon Tip alluded too earlier.
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As I have been saying all along, it comes down to whether or not the Southern vort is timed well with the incoming trough. If it's too fast like the 12z ECMWF and now 18z GFS shows, the trough will kick it out. If it's too slow it could phase early and you could get a super amplified trough and rain at the coast. Has to be timed perfectly. Still time for this one but there is no denying that this was a major nod towards the Euro.
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Moving ahead to day four. Looks like the GFS is caving to the Euro. The Southern vort is too far out ahead of the trough axis since it's slower and your surface low here is way offshore.
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The only real change on the GFS through 78hrs is that it is slower with the trough.
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The 00z GGEM is yet another possibility. The important Southern stream piece that comes into Oregon tomorrow is seen here off the Northeast coast. It's running so far out ahead of the trough that it doesn't phase in until the system is over Canada and you end up with a very amplified pattern and further West track.
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If you look at the last four runs of GFS valid 00z Wednesday the model seems to be handling that piece the same way, albeit with slightly different timing and degrees of amplification. But it is phasing it in rather than shearing it out like the Euro. It would be inaccurate to say that the GFS is trending one way or another. It has been consistent at least over the last 24 hours. We will see what happens with the next run shortly.
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Here is the 06z GFS, you can see that initial piece phasing in which amplifies the trough. The 00z Euro shears the piece out and you're left with a positively tilted trough.
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The animated image I was trying to embed in the post wouldn't work for some reason. I don't know what I am doing wrong. I always used to be able to embed directly from Imugr. In any event, I think the key player is that Southern vort. It will be coming into Oregon tomorrow. If that piece doesn't phase with the incoming trough due to poor timing the system will be either weak or too far offshore. The Euro seems to want to shear it out so there's that too.
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Tip, I think the Southern stream vort that will be coming into the Pacific Northwest late tomorrow night continues to be the key player. This piece shown below on the GFS is well timed and eventually becomes part of the storm over the deep South.
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Late developing Miller A’s are rough. March 2001 comes to mind. They favor New England not NYC.
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Close to the coast is what we want. You want a rapidly deepening system and then the rest will take care of itself.
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18z GFS is going to probably be West of 12z. The southern vort is more amped up than 12z and the trough axis is further West.
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Same type of situation with a squall line feature that moves SW to NE.
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Because you literally have a piece of the polar vortex dropping down. You would be looking at highs struggling to get much above 20 degrees even at the coast.
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The initial Southern stream vort which will be the major key to this storm is way too fast on the Euro and why whatever storm develops is way out to sea. The incoming trough acts more like a kicker here.
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I don't think this is going West of the mountains but I think a costal hugger or a track right overhead like you said is certainly within the range of possibilities.
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The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.
