NJwx85

Not a single flake here. Can see the back edge of the front and clearing near the horizon. Might pull out some sun before the day is over.

Take the snow goggles off. This is a few hours of light precip and that's not going to get it done. You really need a dynamic system to cool the column. Even on the GFS this sounding supports a rain/snow mix or at best white rain. You could even argue sleet or freezing rain.

The airmass coming in for this weekend behind the storm is very good but by early next week we will be moderating. No fresh injection of cold air and no high to the North. The real cold air comes in as the precip is shutting off, at least for the coast. Further inland it looks better.

To get more than a few mood flakes this early in the season you need a dynamic system. The surface low has trended weaker over the past day or two. Don't see anything more than a slushy inch or two at this time.

lol

Still 74 degrees here.

Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 255 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 TORNADO WATCH 686 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-005-009-013-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-043-047-051- 055-057-061-063-065-067-071-075-081-087-093-097-099-107-109-111- 113-119-129-133-010400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0686.191031T1855Z-191101T0400Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN UNION WESTMORELAND YORK $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 255 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 TORNADO WATCH 686 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 010400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0686.191031T1855Z-191101T0400Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 255 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 TORNADO WATCH 686 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-023-027-031-037-049-057-061-065-071-077-093-010400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0686.191031T1855Z-191101T0400Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY JEFFERSON MARION MINERAL MONONGALIA MORGAN PENDLETON PRESTON TUCKER $$

For whatever reason the models are weakening the shear as the line approaches.

The years we had the snowstorm and Sandy, they moved Halloween which was understandable. But moving it because of a little rain is beyond absurd and a reflection on where we are today as a society IMO. For areas farther to our SW where they are expecting legit severe weather I'm not sure how you handle that.

The HRRR and 3k NAM have consistently shown the squall line weakening as it crosses NJ. I would definitely temper my expectations.

How often do you see a freeze warning posted for the same areas where the temperature is currently in the 60's?

I prefer it to be cold in the house. It's much better for you to sleep that way anyway. And my home is well insulated. Not only have we not turned on the heat yet, we normally sleep with at least one of the bedroom windows open and the fan on.

Other than a short period from this weekend to mid next week the 00z ECMWF was a torch.

This weather has been great, aside from the few recent washouts. Haven't even put my heat on yet. After a cool down the first week or November or so, above normal temps look to return by mid-month. Would be nice if we could hold onto those 60's for highs until Thanksgiving.

Nah, hoping for a warm mild Winter after last years brutal second half.

Nice warmup coming on the long range guidance for the beginning of November. Would be nice if we could maintain highs in the 60's for the foreseeable future.

Currently under a TOR warning down here in Palm Beach County. Had a real EAS activation unlike the BS warnings in NJ.

Down in Boynton Beach, FL, currently under a tornado warning. Looks nasty on radar.

Just gusted over 40 again.

Also of note, the temperature has plummeted about 8 degrees in the last 45 minutes or so.

Picking up now. Gusted to 44 and now numerous gusts over 30.

Just gusted to 44 mph.

Winds still out of the West here. Peak gust so far is 32mph. Consistently gusting in the 15-25 mph range. 3.48” of rain as of 10:45pm.