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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Surface temps busted by 2-3 degrees. Was expecting 20's overnight and instead we stayed right around 30-31. We warmed aloft quicker than I anticipated. Thought for sure we would have a solid few hours of moderate snow last night before any changeover. I have some elevation so I am actually closer to the mid-level warming if you think about it.
  2. NJwx85
    Short term model bust here. Usually things trend colder as the event is unfolding but the opposite occurred. I knew we were in trouble last night when things started off as a sleet/snow mix rather that just snow. Within an hour I was completely over to sleet. Ice accretion here was around 0.10" on normal surfaces and about 2-3 times that amount on cold surfaces such as cars and railings. Luckily we seem to have avoided a much bigger problem as temperatures were a couple of degrees warmer than forecasted.
  3. NJwx85
    Sleet here
  4. NJwx85
    Moderate snow here. Really coming down.
  5. NJwx85
    I think he meant that the ice would cause the power lines to fall, this causing his pipes to feeeze without heat. Either way a bit dramatic per the usual.
  6. NJwx85
    It's mostly dependent on rates, mitigated by temperatures. Thus the greater the rate of precip, the more the run off, but the colder the temperatures, the less impact rates have. I can picture the curve in my head. Of course greater precip intensity also increases friction which results in temperature increases. So if the rain comes in heavy it will help to raise temps.
  7. NJwx85
    The last decade or so was an anomaly, not the norm.
  8. NJwx85
    If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns.
  9. NJwx85
    The 18z RGEM is a tick less icy/snowy for the immediate coast. Still keeps areas North of I-80 mostly frozen or freezing.
  10. NJwx85
    The HRRR shows substantial precip arriving in the area from SW to NE between 11PM and Midnight. Some areas could see snow earlier and the earlier the snow comes in the more you will get. By sunrise NYC and most of the immediate coast should be just above freezing, except for the usual spots which tend to hang on a little longer. 20-25 miles NW of the city is a different ball game.
  11. NJwx85
    Cut those ice maps in half and then subtract about half of that for runoff, so still looking at a narrow but widespread area of 0.25"-0.50" ice accretion. The freezing layer is confined to below 925mb on the 18z 3k NAM soundings. Even places like interior Union County don't really get above freezing at the surface until 14z or later. Most of the interior never really gets to 32.
  12. NJwx85
    The NAM is 1-3 hours of snow on the front end followed by a quick switch to sleet and freezing rain. The surface freezing line never really makes it North of Rt 80.
  13. NJwx85
    Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.
  14. NJwx85
    Severe weather down South is a good sign. System is cranked up and ready to go.
  15. NJwx85
    How does it look in the ZR department?
  16. NJwx85
    The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week.
  17. NJwx85
    I suspect the typical inland areas will be updated to Winter Storm Warnings later tonight for potential of 2-4" of sleet and up to 0.50" of freezing rain. The last time we had an ice storm warning here it was hoisted after the event was almost over the damage was already done.
  18. NJwx85
    Only at the surface
  19. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM is really bad in the ice department for a lot of the area with temps in the 20's at the surface and warming aloft. Hope it ends up being more sleet.
  20. NJwx85
    Given current trends I decided to make an ice map. Anyone in the red or purple could locally see >0.50" but I think anything approaching that range is highly localized.
  21. NJwx85
    Don't really have time to make a map but here is my general thinking on the snow. Central Park 1-2" EWR 1-2" LGA T JFK T ISP 1-3" BDR 2-4" SWF 3-6" HPN 2-4" MMU 1-3"
  22. NJwx85
    Finished with 6" in Mahwah, NJ
  23. NJwx85
    The radar is slowly filling in. The HRRR showed a bit of a lull but things shouldn’t completely shut off for about another 7-8 hours.
  24. NJwx85
    About 5-6” OTG here and looks like more to come.
  25. NJwx85
    It should back build some. The latest HRRR has pretty consistent banding over your area until around 09z.
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