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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Latest dropsonde. Just under Cat 5.
  2. NJwx85
    Yes, glad that recon is there to make on last pass. Does the next recon flight leave at 18z?
  3. NJwx85
    NHC increased to 150MPH with the latest advisory, pressure at 929mb, so slight strengthening.
  4. NJwx85
    Looking better now for sure even though there is still impingement on the NW side. Plenty of -80C tops rotating around the core.
  5. NJwx85
    FWIW, the 06z HAFS-A shows some dry air intrusions today and a significantly larger eye by tomorrow morning.
  6. NJwx85
    Recon just got another pass. Pressure is holding steady.
  7. NJwx85
    The hurricane is not currently being affected by dry air. We do have some Northwesterly shear that's forecasted to weaken as the day goes on. Conditions will be favorable for about the next 24 hours. As we speak, hot towers are going up in the Western eyewall. It's still getting its act together from the EWRC.
  8. NJwx85
    Also maintains intensity well. Strong winds make it as far inland as Orlando but it does confine most of the rain to the West and North of the center.
  9. NJwx85
    https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42 Here's a link to the latest recon flight.
  10. NJwx85
    Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core.
  11. NJwx85
    Next panel is wild. 897mb. 160kts.
  12. NJwx85
    The initialization pressure is a joke, but it does show deepening in the 12-24 hours leading up to landfall. 965mb 00z Wednesday, 949mb 00z Thursday. Minimal dry air issues.
  13. NJwx85
    Translates to about 140kts at the surface.
  14. NJwx85
    The 06z HWRF never brings the center South of 22N which is already off based on the latest advisory position of 21.7N.
  15. NJwx85
    Noticed that the HWRF is showing much less dry air intrusion on final approach than what was being modeled on Saturday.
  16. NJwx85
    Jim Cantore also said at the time that it was the strongest Cat 1 he had ever experienced.
  17. NJwx85
    I believe there were forecasts that high in Texas associated with Hurricane Harvey.
  18. NJwx85
    This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.
  19. NJwx85
    Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping.
  20. NJwx85
    Going to be a lot of quick spin ups today East of the track.
  21. NJwx85
    Peak at 160kts.
  22. NJwx85
    I'm waiting to see what the Yankees do. Have tickets for the game tonight.
  23. NJwx85
    Spent the day in the Southern Bahamas, there were easily some 45-50kt gusts associated with rain squalls which began in the afternoon. Sea is angry and the ship has been rocking since yesterday. On our way to the Central Bahamas and Captain said it’s possible we might not be able to dock. Forecast is worse than what we experienced today.
  24. NJwx85
    I’m currently on a cruise ship about 30 NMI N of Hispaniola on a WNW heading. We’re going to pass about 10 NMI South of the Turks and Caicos later tonight. Seas were calm this morning, now 4-6 feet with rain squalls. There was lots of lightning last night as we passed Puerto Rico. Unfortunately we’re headed to the Bahamas and then Port Canaveral on Sunday. Hoping for a Southerly track.
  25. NJwx85
    Fingers crossed. Headed to the Caribbean and then the Bahamas.
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