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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.
  2. NJwx85
    We’re not getting sleet lol That cold air is way too entrenched.
  3. NJwx85
    What a band.
  4. NJwx85
    Much cleaner phase and better trough orientation.
  5. NJwx85
    Oh yes I remember you lol
  6. NJwx85
    I’m not a 20 year old kid anymore. I’m a 40 year old man with 3 kids and a full time job. Don’t have the time I once had. I’ll do my best to chip in on this one though since it’s got blockbuster written all over it.
  7. NJwx85
    Long range NAM looks good.
  8. NJwx85
    You can see here how the timing is slightly off and instead of a consolidated trough, it gets elongated, weakens, and gets kicked East at the last momiute. Still positive trends.
  9. NJwx85
    The phase was just a little late. Need to amplify the flow.
  10. NJwx85
    Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North.
  11. NJwx85
    Much better
  12. NJwx85
    She’s about to go boom
  13. NJwx85
    It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday.
  14. NJwx85
    The GFS is now very similar to the Euro with how it handles the Southern trough. Let’s see if it holds.
  15. NJwx85
    The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West.
  16. NJwx85
    Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.
  17. NJwx85
    Yup, not a clean phase. It trended towards the GFS with regards to handling the SW energy.
  18. NJwx85
    Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging
  19. NJwx85
    There’s no phasing and it all gets squashed south. If that Southern piece doesn’t eject in time we’re finished.
  20. NJwx85
    It was North on Saturday night.
  21. NJwx85
    The GFS buries the Southern vort instead of ejecting it East. Closes off near Cabo. The Euro used to be notorious for this error.
  22. NJwx85
    The GFS is north about 200 miles so far out to 00z Sunday. Snow into the DC area vs the VA/NC border.
  23. NJwx85
    The 12z GFS is digging the trough into the Southwest a little deeper than the 6z Euro did but out to 12z Saturday they look very similar at H5.
  24. NJwx85
    Today’s 06z Euro at 12z Sunday vs yesterday’s. What a difference.
  25. NJwx85
    GFS is North.
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