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NJwx85

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  1. NJwx85
    This isn’t a late season storm. We have a long history of getting big snows in mid February. We have about another month. After March 10th it’s pretty much over for I95 unless we end up with a very anomalous pattern. Given recent model trends and a significant shift southwards, closed 700mb low South of LI favors a band of heavy snow tomorrow for a few hours near I-80/287. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 12”+ reports especially in the higher elevation areas of NW NJ into Orange County, NY. I like 4-8” for the Bronx and Southern Westchester. 6-12” North of HPN. 3-6” for Central Park and 2-4” for South facing Brooklyn and Queens. There will be a Southerly flow to start which will cause mixing issues and the 700mb low close proximity could cause dry slotting in Central NJ and South shore of LI. Could be one of those storms where SI sees 3-5” and Sandy Hook gets nothing.
  2. NJwx85
    My point and click in Southern Rockland is 4-8” and WSW.
  3. NJwx85
    If you believe the GEFS, the above normal temps rebuild for the beginning of February. If you consider that normal for NYC around then is about 40 degrees we could be easily in the 60's if it verifies.
  4. NJwx85
    We're only about a month away from the sun angle becoming an issue. Really is remarkable how short the big snow season is around here. Most of December is pretty much lost and then you get that period between Christmas and say Presidents Day that I refer to as the meat of the snow season and then it's over, especially for the coast. Doesn't mean we can't have a snowy March. If I recall March 2017 was very snowy but I'm fairly certain that was a La Nina.
  5. NJwx85
    Nothing but white rain here all day. Not going to stick to pavement especially with all of the salt still present from Monday. Hard to believe that this pattern didn't deliver a big one after all of those cutters but it is what it is. GFS has above average temps through at least the first week of February from here on out.
  6. NJwx85
    The ARW models actually bring the 2" line North of 287 with a 10:1 ratio. I guess if that verified 2-4" could be realized.
  7. NJwx85
    All of the confluence and dry air pressing down from the North. It's actually helping to squeeze out more precip South of where that sets up. There will be a very sharp cutoff somewhere, my guess right now is around 195 in NJ.
  8. NJwx85
    I think this one is about done, especially for anyone North of Rt 80. Areas near I-78 and points South look good. Maybe Southern Brooklyn, SI, and parts of Queens will do decently.
  9. NJwx85
    It cut totals North of I-78.
  10. NJwx85
    That seems generous given the modeling.
  11. NJwx85
    Looks like this is the peak panel for Northern areas.
  12. NJwx85
    It has very little North of I-78 in NJ.
  13. NJwx85
    Yes I'm aware of where Toms River, NJ is. Models might not be done trending South.
  14. NJwx85
    Big trend South from the 12z run.
  15. NJwx85
    The GFS has trended more amplified over the past four runs while the NAM has trended flatter and is actually much flatter at 12z Friday as compared to the 12z GFS. Cannot remember the last time the NAM was flatter than the GFS 24 hours before a storm. Probably a red flag that the GFS is too wet.
  16. NJwx85
    If you follow the last four runs of the NAM it shows the snow trending North and East with each consecutive run. That's pretty typical of inverted troughs. You never want to be in the bullseye more than 24 hours out.
  17. NJwx85
    Not sure I agree with this. Inverted troughs usually end up trending further Northeast as the event comes closer. My guess is Eastern Long Island and Southeast New England for the win.
  18. NJwx85
    1.5” here plus a quarter inch of ice. Really lousy storm and difficult to shovel.
  19. NJwx85
    When I went through at 8am the PIP was in better shape than I-87.
  20. NJwx85
    Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.
  21. NJwx85
    https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1747224678505046176?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
  22. NJwx85
    Inland areas could get 4"+ if that QPF verified thanks to higher than normal ratios.
  23. NJwx85
    This feels like one of those February’s where we crack 70 degrees and it snows a week later.
  24. NJwx85
    We’re a month away from pitchers and catchers. Pattern breaks down after the 20th storm. Good riddens.
  25. NJwx85
    Best chances for big storms are on the leading edge of cold, like early next week and then as it departs next weekend. After that get out the shorts and BBQ’s.
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