NJwx85

Surprised nobody posted this:

I'm thinking that the HRRR is out to lunch. Have you seen the radar? Daytime heating is only going to add more fuel to the fire.

Yes it does, post the next frame. Moves NW. But I’m sure you were so excited to say I was wrong that you missed that detail.

18z HMON was a solid hit for the entire region.

18z HWRF takes the center West of Philly.

Recon is in the storm.

Agreed, just wanted to point out that even though the convection is currently East of the center, it's not meaningful at this point and something you would expect with a developing warm core low.

Regardless as to the exact track of the low, the rain made it much further into PA than the prior run. It's going to matter with such a compact system.

It shifted West of the previous run for sure.

12z HWRF

12z HWRF is west and slower. Center is in Maryland at 15z Friday instead of SW NJ.

Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track.

Another garbage model lol.

12z HWRF is running now. That will be telling of any East trends.

The only non junk model in the East camp was the 00z Euro.

It should be ventilated by the trough building into the Ohio Valley. Good timing as a day later and it would have kicked it OTS instead.

Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches.

Speak for yourself. Any further East and West of the city will see minimal impacts.

Crazy rain here. Not much else.

Lightning here, about to get pounded.

It's pretty amazing to see the vertical wind shear here. The clouds at the highest levels are moving Easterly. The mid-levels appear to be nearly calm and the low levels are racing North. For those that don't know I am in Ramsey, NJ FYI.

Crazy wind here just above the surface. Tops of tall trees swaying pretty good. Low level clouds and scud are racing North.