NJwx85

Mid-afternoon into tonight. It's going to take awhile for those feeder bands to rotate in.

12z GFS totals

Yes but we're still going to get a lot of rain from the stuff moving in off the ocean.

FL winds approaching 60kts

12z RGEM

Some of the higher elevations in interior NJ and SE NY could see some stronger winds than expected.

Irene spent a lot of time over land in NC.

That was me. I think it's more the fact that it's in a very good upper air environment. Normally at this latitude you have the Westerlies picking at it and a strong trough inflicting shear. This really is an anomalous storm.

Few things, expect the rain to fill in more on the East side of the storm. The fact that it's up to 60MPH is a sign that perhaps this will end up on the higher end of expectations. Saw numerous pictures on social media today of coastal flooding in Delaware, so keep your guard up. The storm seems to be taking its sweet time. A lot of the guidance yesterday had this almost through here by 2PM. Completely ignore the HRRR which currently has a terrible depiction of the radar vs reality.

Just wanted to point out that ACY is actually well inland, located in Pomona, NJ. I have had family in the area since 1989 so I am very familiar with that area.

Still think this is underdone.

Hugging the coast, just offshore. A dream track for areas just inland if this was Winter.

000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Pressure down to 998mb on the last center fix so still deepening.

Two things I found amazing about tracking this storm. 1) A direct impact was never really in doubt. The models shifted East for one model cycle, but for the most part have been locked in. 2) Every year we have so many storms that end up in similar positions off of OBX and we can count on almost one hand the amount of direct impacts that we've had. So far this year we're one for one. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today.

It probably is a hybrid which is part of the reason why it looks as good as it does on radar. I'm just not sure that sub-tropical is the correct term and it has me thinking as to whether or not storms like this are properly identified. Maybe this is just a small scale extra-tropical storm?

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't sub-tropical when the center is in the mid-levels instead of at the surface? I believe in this case we have a closed surface low or the NHC wouldn't have named it as a TS.

Special Marine Warning ANZ451-471-472-101400- /O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0070.200710T1234Z-200710T1400Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 834 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm... Outer waters from Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40 nm... * Until 1000 AM EDT. * At 834 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 25 nm southeast of Garden State North Reef, moving northwest at 30 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Beach Haven, Barnegat Light, North Beach Haven, Garden State North Reef, Ship Bottom, Barnegat Light Reef, Garden State South Reef, Harvey Cedars and Forked River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately. && LAT...LON 3925 7359 3958 7437 3989 7410 3939 7346 TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 128DEG 30KT 3935 7362 WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.00IN WIND...40KTS

Not sure what you were expecting. It's a 45kt storm off of VA Beach in early July. Not exactly what I would call a conducive environment for a deep tropical system.