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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
  2. NJwx85
    NAM has a fairly intense looking line coming through tonight from South to North.
  3. NJwx85
    Hate using the NAM for anything tropical, but it does show some intense winds making it fairly far inland.
  4. NJwx85
    I'm really not that far inland. If I take a three minute drive down Rt 17 I can see the city.
  5. NJwx85
    I'm in Mahwah, which is upper Bergen County. I'm not trying to mitigate the severity of the storm, especially for those just along the coast. I'm just not totally convinced yet that the winds on the modeling will be fully realized. Usually we end up with an inversion and that requires deep convection to overcome, but I also understand that we should have solid mixing East of the low track so who knows. Just a low confidence forecast IMO. Forward speed should also play a role.
  6. NJwx85
    Satellite loop shows this is already beginning to interact with the trough. I'm liking the idea of slow intensification today since the shear vector should actually help to ventilate the system now.
  7. NJwx85
    Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?
  8. NJwx85
    Shear has calmed down some, but still running in the 25-30kt range. Probably not going to have much of a window for intensification before landfall. After landfall in the Carolina's, it will be over land for much of the rest of its existence, so no ability to ride the gulf stream up.
  9. NJwx85
    I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here. 12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.
  10. NJwx85
    Thunderstorms are erupting in NE PA West of Allentown.
  11. NJwx85
    Truly feels like a Summer day in FL today.
  12. NJwx85
    I’m not rooting for tornadoes or damage, but as a weather enthusiast it’s interesting. We have zero control over it anyway.
  13. NJwx85
    Every recent tornado watch here has been a major bust. Hopefully this one isn’t as disappointing.
  14. NJwx85
    Should be a good deal of rain out ahead of the core as it interacts with the trough which will draw the moisture poleward. The actual core should be intense but it’s a very fast mover. I think rain totals might be in the 3-5” range, unless the PRE is more intense than it currently looks.
  15. NJwx85
    Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.
  16. NJwx85
    This is the best analog that I can find. I think it's pretty similar. Only difference is that it stayed just off Hispanolia instead of grazing it.
  17. NJwx85
    I’m currently thinking that wind on the coast might be a problem, especially over E LI. West of the track should be lots of rain but it was so dry for so long we should still be in decent shape flooding wise unless we get 8”+ in ~10 hours like we did in Irene.
  18. NJwx85
    The storm is really hauling and if it ends up much more intense than predicted it could be a legitimate hurricane near LI.
  19. NJwx85
    Luckily the Northern side of Ohau is sparsely populated.
  20. NJwx85
    Storm coverage is starting to increase. Atmosphere still is unstable.
  21. NJwx85
    Unlikely that the core would be able to cross the mountainous terrain of the big island in tact like it shows. If it did manage to make it across in tact, once past the big island it would encounter increasing ocean temperatures.
  22. NJwx85
    Right over the warmest waters currently. As soon at it crosses 15N the water cools dramatically. The best shot of a major landfall in the islands is from the South.
  23. NJwx85
    Total dud non event here. Some lightning and light rain. The only time we get decent storms around here anymore are during the early morning hours.
  24. NJwx85
    DOA here. Too far North. Story of the year IMBY.
  25. NJwx85
    I can see the backside of the cell that's up near I-84 now. Looks fairly benign. The main part of the line is approaching Allentown and continues to fill in to the North, so hopefully things hold together. SPC mesoanalyis indicates roughly 3000-3500 J/KG of SBCAPE in place and strong low level lapse rates coupled with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Should be enough to sustain the line with damaging winds possible. This isolated activity ahead of the line should also leave behind some boundaries which could locally enhance activity. Strongest storm currently looks like a discrete cell in the Catskills which appears to be a right mover. Depending on exact trajectory and intensity it could make it down into parts of the Hudson Valley.
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