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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It’s kind of falling apart now.
  2. NJwx85
  3. NJwx85
    18z RGEM nails most of the area with lots of rain. Near Hurricane force winds for the SE NJ coast as well. Waiting for the rest of the run to load.
  4. NJwx85
    Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes. I'll take the second option.
  5. NJwx85
    More likely 7-8PM.
  6. NJwx85
    A broken clock is right twice a day.
  7. NJwx85
    FYP
  8. NJwx85
    You cannot expect models to pick up on the nuances of what's going to happen. Either way, with the center passing overhead or just West, we've known for awhile the biggest threat was the wind, not the rain.
  9. NJwx85
    You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.
  10. NJwx85
    LOL
  11. NJwx85
    Very slight shift East with the 18z spaghetti models. Mean track still over NJ.
  12. NJwx85
    Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.
  13. NJwx85
    I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.
  14. NJwx85
    These extra-tropical or transitioning storms have proven to be quite the big ticket items around here.
  15. NJwx85
    Yikes
  16. NJwx85
    Agreed but you just never know. Huge blowup of convection currently to the North and NW of the center. The change in directional shear is allowing this to have one last gasp. Radar is a bit long range but looks like it may have closed off an "eyewall" again.
  17. NJwx85
    12Z UKMET rain totals
  18. NJwx85
    Overdone by how much? Cut them in half and you have widespread 50-70mph gusts.
  19. NJwx85
    Is this real?
  20. NJwx85
    Models are tightly clustered on taking the center near Philly. Difference then is does it continue on a NNE heading into Upstate NY which would deliver the winds or does it take more of an Easterly pivot which would kick the wind potential East of the city?
  21. NJwx85
    12z HWRF has a period of 50-60kts for Sandy Hook, NY Harbor and 40-45kts for Southern Queens, Brooklyn and SI. Elsewhere sustained winds look to be in the 20-30kt range which I personally think is a bit underdone compared to model consensus.
  22. NJwx85
    Don’t be surprised if they hoist hurricane watches for LI. Several models are showing gust potential up to 65kts.
  23. NJwx85
    You can already see the rain shield fanning out and extending Northward. Center is just East of Saint Mary’s, GA and the steady rain is approaching Myrtle Beach.
  24. NJwx85
    The current structure or appearance of the storm while it’s still down in the tropics has little if any impacts on what’s going to happen up here, unless the system had dissipated which clearly it hasn’t.
  25. NJwx85
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