NJwx85

Spent the day in the Southern Bahamas, there were easily some 45-50kt gusts associated with rain squalls which began in the afternoon. Sea is angry and the ship has been rocking since yesterday. On our way to the Central Bahamas and Captain said it’s possible we might not be able to dock. Forecast is worse than what we experienced today.

I’m currently on a cruise ship about 30 NMI N of Hispaniola on a WNW heading. We’re going to pass about 10 NMI South of the Turks and Caicos later tonight. Seas were calm this morning, now 4-6 feet with rain squalls. There was lots of lightning last night as we passed Puerto Rico. Unfortunately we’re headed to the Bahamas and then Port Canaveral on Sunday. Hoping for a Southerly track.

Fingers crossed. Headed to the Caribbean and then the Bahamas.

Same at my house in Bardonia. Someone called into WFAN and reported golf ball sized hail in Croton from that cell. Also a tornado, but it probably wasn't an actual tornado.

Prime snow season ends around here the middle of next week. After that sun angle becomes a growing problem for anything that falls during the day. Heck, it was even somewhat of an issue yesterday in the immediate costal plain and the city.

We deserve a nice and mild start to Spring after the last few years.

The 12z RGEM has a really solid event here. Around 0.2 to 0.3" QPF could easily be a 3-5" event with high ratios expected. There should be a quick moving area of enough lift to give a few hour burst of moderate to locally heavy snow.

I think we’re good for the next 4 hours or so. After that the back edge will be rapidly approaching.

I was pretty much on board with NYC snow yesterday but was skeptical that rates would be heavy enough along the coast to overcome BL issues enough to get over 6”. Clearly the models were too weak and too far South with the banding. Kudos to the GFS and Canadian models which never shifted like the Euro and NAM did. I always say how unstable the NAM is but people here love it because it often shows them what they want to see only to completely change most times a run later.

About 4” here so far on elevated cold surfaces like my patio table. About half that on the ground. Very light snow here currently and 30 degrees.

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1757243488364560530?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

Here's the incoming flight into Orlando. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL2082/history/20240212/2100Z/KLGA/KMCO They will probably reassign the aircraft to a different route. All of the airlines are going to be pulling assets out of the NY airports until things settle down.

They do this a lot. Trying to mitigate problems down the line, however they haven't cancelled anything for tomorrow morning yet.

How many of these winter storm warnings will be dropped completely or downgraded by tonight?

If 2-4 or 3-6 ends up verifying then fine. We could end up with way less than that up here.

Don't be surprised when the 00z runs end up even further South. Most school districts around here have already called closings for tomorrow. I understand what the forecast was showing but there was no need to pull the trigger this early.

If that's your take you really do need to go back to school and learn geography.

18z vs 12z

The 18z NAM closes off this run over Northern Virginia which kind of drags the entire precip field South some. It's more consolidated. Definitely not a great trend for areas North of I-84.

You have a Southeasterly flow to start which doesn't flip around until the low passes offshore. If you had a really strong high to the North Philly and DC would be getting snow and NYC would be on the Northern fringe instead of Albany.

The mid level lows close off in a very good spot for heavy snow in our area. And the low is still deepening as it passes to our South. The system doesn't occlude until it's way up in Canada.

This is a full blown coastal system with a mature CCB.

To be fair, the dry slotting would be temporary following by several hours of backend snow as the system moves East. You can kind of see the possible dry slot here on the 12K NAM. For areas along I-80 and points North this is going to be a very big snow storm.

This isn’t a late season storm. We have a long history of getting big snows in mid February. We have about another month. After March 10th it’s pretty much over for I95 unless we end up with a very anomalous pattern. Given recent model trends and a significant shift southwards, closed 700mb low South of LI favors a band of heavy snow tomorrow for a few hours near I-80/287. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 12”+ reports especially in the higher elevation areas of NW NJ into Orange County, NY. I like 4-8” for the Bronx and Southern Westchester. 6-12” North of HPN. 3-6” for Central Park and 2-4” for South facing Brooklyn and Queens. There will be a Southerly flow to start which will cause mixing issues and the 700mb low close proximity could cause dry slotting in Central NJ and South shore of LI. Could be one of those storms where SI sees 3-5” and Sandy Hook gets nothing.

My point and click in Southern Rockland is 4-8” and WSW.