Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,238

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    zzzzz... Rain looks to be in and out in 6-8 hours. Most of the modeling has cut back to 1-2" with spotty 2"+ totals. I'm really hating that every event lately is in and out in under 8 hours. That doesn't bode well for Winter.
  2. NJwx85
    Disgustingly humid out.
  3. NJwx85
    Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats. Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.
  4. NJwx85
    Flash Flood Warning needed here immediately. Heaviest rain here in years.
  5. NJwx85
    Torrential downpour here.
  6. NJwx85
    I think models are underdone on the NW side. Dewpoints are in the mid 70's and the cold front is still back by the Canadian border.
  7. NJwx85
    Sun is out here. Look how much SBCAPE is in place. I expect it to be an active afternoon.
  8. NJwx85
  9. NJwx85
    Is everyone convinced that the weak trough in Canada is going to be enough to weaken the ridge enough that it allows Paulette to escape? A bit of an outlier, but some GEFS members do take Paulette towards the coast.
  10. NJwx85
    Decent amount of MUCAPE available for elevated convective activity. Cannot rule out some lightning.
  11. NJwx85
    06z HRDPS has another 3-5" for Western Suffolk County. Doesn't look like much rain will make it NW of the city. Areas NW of 287 could remain mostly dry or with spotty activity. With that being said, it's currently pouring here.
  12. NJwx85
    I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy.
  13. NJwx85
    We still have six weeks of prime season left.
  14. NJwx85
    We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd.
  15. NJwx85
    You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya...
  16. NJwx85
    Better get used to NYC getting more hurricane threats than Miami.
  17. NJwx85
    I'm not convinced yet that the future Cape Verde hurricane is definitely going to be a recurve. for starters, it appears to be a significant threat to the islands in 7-10 days. The GFS then swings through a shallow trough around the 19th which supposedly weakens the ridge. Again, not sure I buy that, especially given the massive dome of high pressure moving through the Eastern US at the same time. Thereafter, it looks to be steered by the trough coming down from Canada, and who's to say that it doesn't get picked up rather than booted OTS? Sure, the odds favor OTS. But this year, almost every storm that has made it West of 60W has found a way to hit land.
  18. NJwx85
    It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.
  19. NJwx85
  20. NJwx85
    Surface based CAPE is confined to areas mostly south of 195 in NJ. We have no shear, no SBCAPE and perhaps around 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE developing around Sunset. Likely storm evolution is elevated in nature with low risk of severe weather IMO.
  21. NJwx85
    That's the 3K NAM not the HRRR. And it only has significant rain for the Southern half of the sub forum.
  22. NJwx85
    The HRRR shows an increase in MUCAPE after 00z. Probably a decent shot at some elevated convection before the front comes through around 07-09z.
  23. NJwx85
    Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.
  24. NJwx85
    Strong ensemble support for the 5 day cherry. Models are then split between an early recurve and a more ominous track North of the islands.
  25. NJwx85
    It's the two lemons and then the wave that comes off Africa after those two.
×
×
  • Create New...