NJwx85

Not liking the trends today for us folks North of I80.

Wow that’s ugly up here.

I'm on board. Storm correlates well with NAO dip and well placed high to the North. Have to be careful though or this could easily end up passing Southeast. The trough is neutral at best until the ULL closes off and by then it's past us.

Okay it was a massive bust for anyone in NJ and the LHV. And it was still a bust for points East of the city when you consider the forecasts.

I'm in Southeast Rockland County now so it's not much of a difference but yes it did get a tad wetter.

It's similar to the NAM. Puts snow back into the game for NW CT. But it's negligible for the majority of our forum outside of Eastern LI which looks to have quite the wind driven rain event.

Many on here might be too young to remember March 2001. Models weren't as good as they are now and forecast two days out was for several feet of snow. Ended up with a few inches of mostly slop. But nothing compares to the January 2015 blizzard. Calls for 2-3 feet the day before the storm hit. Forecast: Reality:

Some slight improvements on the 3K 12z NAM from the 06z run but no real significant impact changes except for Eastern Long Island which seems locked in for a driving rain storm.

If the rain later today and tonight underperforms some areas in the interior might not even get much of anything.

The 06z GFS wasn't a terrible look however the shortwave I have circled needs to go away. It's suppressing the heights to our East. If it not for that, it's a classic setup for a big storm.

The storm doesn't really mature until it's mostly past this area. The CCB develops late, just in time for it to wallop Central and Northern New England. Even the 06z GFS has jumped ship for our area and now has the more suppressed solution. Someone in New Hampshire is going to get well over a foot of snow.

On a side note, this is my favorite type of storm. Overrunning well out ahead comes in Friday late afternoon. Then storm really cranks overnight into Saturday morning as low tracks from ACY to Cape Cod. Would be a perfect track for a crippling, long duration blizzard if the Northern piece was able to get out ahead a tad more. 12z GFS has 6"+ for Springfield and NW CT. We're not missing this by much.

It's been cold around here since the big thaw last weekend. Had a hard frost this morning. Ground certainly isn't frozen but with low sun angle and it being December it should accumulate away from the coast if it comes down even moderately. North shore of LI looks good too.

Typical windshield washer back and forth at this stage. 00z models tonight will be telling.

Nice deformation band signal on the 3k NAM. Temperatures for interior NJ and Southeast NY look to be in the mid-30's but the rest of the column is cool so we could see a changeover to a heavy wet snow inland on Saturday morning.

What a beast on the GFS. Over 3” of rain in many spots.

Decent thunderstorm here. Decent amount of lightning.

Supercell down in SW NJ looks really nasty.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 NJC011-033-302115- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-201130T2115Z/ Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ- 359 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EST FOR NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL SALEM COUNTIES... At 359 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Newport Meadows, or 10 miles west of Bridgeton, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Alloway, Shiloh and Newport Meadows. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3948 7543 3956 7535 3946 7524 3934 7542 3943 7549 TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 230DEG 32KT 3940 7541 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Iovino Tornado Warning NJC019-PAC017-091-302130- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0036.201130T2053Z-201130T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 430 PM EST. * At 353 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Lansdale, or 17 miles north of Philadelphia, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lansdale, Doylestown, Byram, Chalfont, Tinicum, New Hope, Pipersville, Gardenville, Lumberville, Lambertville, New Britain, Brittany Farms-Highlands and Montgomeryv

Pretty much a non event so far out here in Rockland. Just some gusts to 25-30 besides the rain. We’ll see if the storms make it up here.

Nothing too crazy so far at my new house in Bardonia.

Light snow falling here.

Wilma seems like a decent analog although obviously it recurved further East than what Delta is going to do.

Currently pouring here.