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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm. 12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+. We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup.
  2. NJwx85
    General rule of thumb, in early. out early. It might be pretty much over by 1-2AM on Thursday.
  3. NJwx85
    It has the 700mb low closing off over Eastern PA so it almost chokes off the coastal with a mid-level dry punch after the initial WAA.
  4. NJwx85
    It's the NAM, but it brings mixing issues pretty far inland. Warm punch at 700mb makes it up to about TPZ bridge.
  5. NJwx85
    Why would you move from Ridgewood to Astoria?
  6. NJwx85
    Most of the general public doesn't even understand the difference between an advisory, watch or warning. It should be self explanatory that a warning would be the highest level of concern but it doesn't register.
  7. NJwx85
    We had a storm on Christmas Day, I think it was 2002 where we had a thunderstorm come through with heavy rain, lightning and dime sized hail at my parents house in Northern, NJ. After the storm passed it changed over to snow and I think we finished with around 8". One of the few storms that I remember that started as rain and ended as significant snow.
  8. NJwx85
    Yup exactly. Wonder if we'll get the very rare, yet slightly overrated blizzard watch with this one.
  9. NJwx85
    The best thing you can do is try to understand why the models are doing what they are doing. You have warm air advection attempting to plow into a dome of cold, dry air to our North courtesy of the 1038mb high. Even without the coastal storm you would have several inches of snow just from the normal processes involved with running warm moist air up over cold dry air. Whenever you have a coastal you need to see where the mid-level centers, particularly 700 and 850mb track. If they get too close to the coast, then that's where you end up with mixing issues. I honestly don't see that happening. Most models bring the storm up to about ACY before kicking it East.
  10. NJwx85
    I'm in Clarkstown, NY now. It's part of Rockland County. I'm only about 15 minutes East from where I used to live. It shouldn't have a major impact in a storm like this.
  11. NJwx85
    It always amazes me that guys that have been on here for longer than I have still fall for this storm after storm. I'm on here over 10 years now. You're never going to get every model run to spit out an identical run, run after run. Often times you have a drastic change after the pieces come on shore but that seems to be happening less and less lately.
  12. NJwx85
    It's Monday morning and the storm isn't supposed to start until late Wednesday afternoon. Watches typically aren't hoisted until 36-48 hours prior to the start. I'm sure if everything holds you will see watches with the afternoon update.
  13. NJwx85
    I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.
  14. NJwx85
    All of this back and forth is just typical model noise. This has honestly been one of the most consistently tracked storms that I can remember. Aside from the GFS we have excellent agreement on a wide swath of 12-18" from I-95 and points NW. Central NJ coast into Eastern Long Island could have some mixing issues but honestly I think most areas will be fine. Just have to understand that not everybody is going to get over 20" of snow.
  15. NJwx85
    That 4.8" in one hour is going to be crazy. The best dynamics are always just NW of the rain/snow line.
  16. NJwx85
  17. NJwx85
    Why do people still look at the GFS for coastal storms?
  18. NJwx85
    Sorry I stopped looking after I saw the 37.2” at MMU. Talk about pitching a tent.
  19. NJwx85
    That’s 96 type numbers there.
  20. NJwx85
    Lock it in baby.
  21. NJwx85
    Hell no
  22. NJwx85
    Winds there strong are going to limit ratios somewhat.
  23. NJwx85
  24. NJwx85
    Snow is snow but often times when you have confluence like that the extent of the Northern cutoff is even sharper than forecasted. I have PTSD from many of these similar events.
  25. NJwx85
    The GFS and its ensembles are on their own. The NAM is not even worth looking at right now. The GGEM and Euro combo also has the UKMET.
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