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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM is actually not as bad as people are making it out to be. Yes the sleet/snow line makes it to about the Bergen/Rockland line but then the coastal takes over and most places West of the city get good backend snows.
  2. NJwx85
    It must be so cool to actually issue watches/warnings and then come on here and watch people bitch/complain about not getting the warning they wanted
  3. NJwx85
    Nope, nor would I, however even if you couldn't get to a grocery store for a week people should be able to survive without the need for hoarding.
  4. NJwx85
    The NWS in Upton, NY has issued a WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT in affect immediately and until further notice. 12-18 snow weenies per hour will be cliff jumping over the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to your local weather authority for the most updated information on this breaking story.
  5. NJwx85
    It's 2020 and you live in NYC. Even if you get 30" of snow the roads will be cleared within 24 hours.
  6. NJwx85
    3k NAM soundings show a really ugly dry layer around 700mb. While the North trend has been real, still think that you're not getting a storm that far inland with this amount of blocking. And the NAM/GFS should have been taken out behind the barn years ago...
  7. NJwx85
    12z NAM is more amped up through hr 25.
  8. NJwx85
    Good morning and good luck to everyone. While we're waiting for the 12z NAM to finish running, the 09z SREF mean has the heaviest axis of snow falling in Southern/Central PA up into SE NY and NW NJ with a swath of 12-18" in those areas. For most of NE NJ, NYC and the LHV the mean has 10-12" with lesser amounts as you travel South and East. I can only post the zoomed out low quality image.
  9. NJwx85
  10. NJwx85
    It always was. But as I suspect, it's just more windshield wiper action with regards to the heaviest band.
  11. NJwx85
    18z RGEM
  12. NJwx85
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-151000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- 400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, especially along the coast. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute.
  13. NJwx85
    The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low over NE PA, NNJ and then NYC/LI. We want that about 50 miles Southeast. Otherwise precip might completely shutoff after the initial thump.
  14. NJwx85
    Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen. I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010.
  15. NJwx85
    The gradient is going to be sharper than what the models indicate. Cannot tell you how many times recently that I was on the fringe and got absolutely nothing.
  16. NJwx85
    You're going to go from 12" to 2" over a very short distance and that's going to be close to the line I indicated. Keep in mind the dew points are based on the 12z Euro so you can use your model of choice. Nobody knows for sure where exactly the snow stops, but the model consensus is just North of I-84.
  17. NJwx85
    Yeah, significant totals. Nothing approaching 18" like what you will see close to I-80.
  18. NJwx85
    I think you're find as long as you're South of 84. Once North of there you'll get some snow but it won't be like further South.
  19. NJwx85
    If you want to know where the cutoff is, you can pretty much just follow the dewpoints. The 10 degree dew point line is probably close to where the brick wall sets up.
  20. NJwx85
    That's because the timing is different within the individual members.
  21. NJwx85
    It's extremely difficult to get high amounts of precipitation to fall when you're ramming moisture into brick wall of dense, dry air. We would have received higher amounts if the coastal had been stronger due to stronger dynamics.
  22. NJwx85
    Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles.
  23. NJwx85
    We've known that this was going to be the case since Saturday.
  24. NJwx85
    I really don't see sleet being much of an issue honestly. Once the coastal develops it should flip the winds around to northeasterly and you will have some dynamic cooling as the low slowly deepens. This storm reminds me so much of a slightly more progressive version of PDII. It even looks similar at H5.
  25. NJwx85
    This is probably not your storm but I could be wrong. I don't think North of 84 sees warning level snows.
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