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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I think Northern Manhattan, Northern Queens and the Bronx are going to get close to 10". I don't see how SI, Southern Queens, Lower Manhattan or Brooklyn gets to 10" without a big surprise.
  2. NJwx85
    The only way that most of NYC is going to see a double digit snowfall from this storm is if it comes in much stronger and earlier than expected or if the models are wrong about the dry slot/mixing coming in around midnight.
  3. NJwx85
    Look at the CAD signature all the way down into Southern VA. This airmass is well locked in.
  4. NJwx85
    Based on current radar trends Washington DC should be reporting snow soon. Historically speaking we should expect snow about 4 hours after that happens. So my guess is a start time of around 2-3PM from SW to NE.
  5. NJwx85
    I'm gong with a third of that. It's too short of a duration for snow. You would need 3-4" per hour rates to achieve 18".
  6. NJwx85
    I'm going with 5-8" at Central Park. Totals will increase dramatically North of the GWB. I'm expecting a quick thump of 1-2" per hour rates from about 4PM to midnight and then a flip to sleet and dry slot for the coastal plain. The dry slot probably makes it about as far inland as the Rockland/Orange County border would be my guess. NW of that line will see the 12"+ amounts although the Hudson Valley could also get into that range if the track ends up slightly further South. I'm not so much worried about the sleet as I am the dry tongue above 700mb.
  7. NJwx85
    Remember, it could always be worse. You could live in DC.
  8. NJwx85
  9. NJwx85
    Gotta love that dynamic cooling signal on the 18z GFS as it moves from NE PA, across NNJ and into the LHV.
  10. NJwx85
    Not sure I completely agree. The position of the 700mb low on the 12z vs 18z run valid 12z Thursday is nearly identical, and one mb deeper.
  11. NJwx85
    Winter Storm Warning here for 12-16 inches and gusts up to 45MPH.
  12. NJwx85
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  16. NJwx85
    A storm that deep would be a big game changer in terms of getting better dynamics into our area and stronger winds.
  17. NJwx85
    My preliminary forecast: Scranton - 18-24" Allentown - 18-24" Morristown - 14-20" Trenton - 3-6" Philadelphia - 2-4" Newburgh - 14-20" Nyack - 12-18" Islip - 10-14" Central Park - 6-10" LGA - 4-8" JFK - 4-8" Riverhead - C-2" Newark - 6-10"
  18. NJwx85
    The good news is that the 12z GFS doesn't have as pronounced of a dry slot as the NAM/RGEM. The biggest difference is that the 700mb low tracks over LI instead of the Poconos. The bad news is that it trended way North with the track of the 700mb low from the previous run.
  19. NJwx85
    Yes the shortwave is strong but you would think given the blocking that it should just force a quicker transfer to the coastal.
  20. NJwx85
    I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.
  21. NJwx85
    They call them clown maps for a reason.... A lot of that "snow" for the coast is sleet being incorrectly counted as snow with 10:1 ratios.
  22. NJwx85
    A lot of that in NNJ and LI is sleet.
  23. NJwx85
    Late developing coastal which is always a worry with miller B's. Gives Boston more snow than NYC.
  24. NJwx85
    This is probably the warmest panel on the RGEM.
  25. NJwx85
    The dry slot magnified.
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