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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Weenies see a low that's tucked into the coast and automatically assume dry/warm issues. That's not always the case. If something goes wrong with this forecast it won't be because of the surface low being tucked in.
  2. NJwx85
    It looks completely out to lunch and at this point should be dismissed as an outlier.
  3. NJwx85
    The precipitation on Sunday and Sunday night is driven by warm air advection. Basically running warm, moist air up over cold, dry air resulting in lift. No real threat for warm air intrusion because by the time the low gets close enough, the coastal storm takes over and flips winds to out of the Northeast. Any mixing issues in our area should be minimal unless the surface low doesn't develop fast enough. Overall this is a pretty good setup for big snow in our area. Great cold air source and long duration. Synoptically it's very close to some of our biggest snowstorms of all time.
  4. NJwx85
    The reason why the snow coverage looks spotty on the GFS after 00z Monday is because the storm has peaked by then and is starting to fill and weaken. That's what happens when you get a vertically stacked storm. This isn't a rapidly deepening Miller A that's coming up from the South. #knowyourstorm
  5. NJwx85
    Awful post after awful post here today. Read more, post less. Look at soundings before you make accusations about dry air. The column is completely saturated until early Tuesday morning when the surface low starts to pull away. The mid-level centers are what's bringing us the strong precip Monday afternoon and Monday night. If they end up further East, they will take the precip with them. Dew points are running about 10 degrees colder than surface temps through the height of the storm. You're going to have plenty of room to wet bulb if the CCB cranks like it's supposed to.
  6. NJwx85
    I know it's tempting to jump all in on this one but just remember that we're still over three days out. A lot is going to change between now and then. And with miller B's you're always going to have a screw zone where the low jumps from the Ohio Valley to off the coast. We're fortunate that the mid level centers develop tucked into the coast. It brings the mixing line North but it's our only shot at seeing big numbers on Monday night.
  7. NJwx85
    Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.
  8. NJwx85
    Love these long duration events. 12z GFS has snow falling from roughly Sunday early afternoon until Tuesday morning. Nothing real crazy in terms of dynamics but the 700mb low forms in exactly the ideal position brining the heaviest, steadiest snows on Monday afternoon.
  9. NJwx85
    It has the city hanging on the edge of sleet, freezing rain, rain and snow.
  10. NJwx85
    Snow should start between Noon and 1PM from West to East.
  11. NJwx85
    Expecting 2-4" here which could end up as my largest snowfall since the pre Christmas storm.
  12. NJwx85
    Just 12 short weeks to go until April 1st!
  13. NJwx85
    Hopefully we can squeeze out some 60's over the next few weeks
  14. NJwx85
    Sleet here
  15. NJwx85
    Moderate snow in Bardonia, about a half inch OTG already.
  16. NJwx85
    One storm doesn't take away from dozens of recent storms where it was way too warm.
  17. NJwx85
    Congrats DC and Philly.
  18. NJwx85
    The GFS usually has a warm bias.
  19. NJwx85
    The 12z GFS trended a degree or two colder and also held onto the colder air at the surface longer than the prior run. Ice threat across the interior is increasing.
  20. NJwx85
    I'm interested to see what the NAM shows over the next few runs. The GFS has consistently been the coldest at the surface. The 00z EURO limited icing to the far interior sections of Ulster and Sullivan Counties.
  21. NJwx85
    You have to account for runoff and temperatures are just below freezing so it's not as bad as it would be if it was raining with temps in the 20's.
  22. NJwx85
    Probably a glaze North of I-80 in NJ, 0.10-0.20" once you get North of the NYS Thruway in Rockland, perhaps as much as 0.25", maybe slightly more once you get close to I-84. The Port Jervis area up into Ulster County could see more than >0.25".
  23. NJwx85
    Watch for a 6-12 hr period of significant ice threat N&W of I-287. Highest impact area for our sub forum is Orange county.
  24. NJwx85
    I actually looked it up and historically speaking the coldest day of the year in NYC on average is January 29th. Surprised me quite a bit. Not surprisingly February is the snowiest month at Central Park.
  25. NJwx85
    Only about 6 or 7 weeks left for prime snow season at the coast once you get passed the first third of January. Not that it cannot snow after Presidents Day but the odds start declining dramatically. After the first ten days of March it's pretty much over. Of course some of our recent March's have been excellent snow producers but that's an anomaly.
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