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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The 12z Euro is as bad as it gets N&W of 287. Major ice storm.
  2. NJwx85
    The next system for Thursday time frame has potential but the high is retreating.
  3. NJwx85
    This is why you're getting the precip and why you're warming aloft. Over 80kts of Southwesterly winds at 700mb.
  4. NJwx85
    Yeah, the same mechanism that's driving the precipitation. It's called warm air advection and without it we wouldn't have a storm. The strong shortwave in the Tennessee Valley is driving warm moist air up over the cold, dry air to the North creating lift. Because the trough is so flat you end up with a relative weak wave that quickly scoots East on the strong LLJ. The trough is somewhat amplified in the plains but then gets flattened out. You would want this to dig much further South before then trying to come North which would have forced a redeveloping surface low. All in all if this ends up verifying it's a waste of solid cold air.
  5. NJwx85
    I would still lean towards a snow or snow and sleet mix. In order to get significant freezing rain conditions have to be perfect.
  6. NJwx85
    This is about as ugly as you can get. Only good thing is that by this panel most of the precip has already fallen. You can see how the drier air aloft is already working in.
  7. NJwx85
    Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types. The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area. Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern. The GFS is usually too warm at the surface.
  8. NJwx85
    Okay I'm officially concerned
  9. NJwx85
    It's actually flatter with the trough than the GFS but stronger with the shortwave which should lead to a colder solution.
  10. NJwx85
    As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78.
  11. NJwx85
    That's only half the storm and the wrong model run.
  12. NJwx85
    This is a fast moving storm which will limit accumulations. Probably in and out in about 8-12 hours. Still someone could end up with close to a foot.
  13. NJwx85
    It was much better at H5.
  14. NJwx85
  15. NJwx85
  16. NJwx85
    18z GFS is going to come West.
  17. NJwx85
    It's actually a really simple forecast. If the Southern piece can get ahead of the digging trough, it will phase and come up the coast. If it misses the phase altogether it will go OTS and if the phase is late then we will get scraped and Eastern New England will get it.
  18. NJwx85
    Big shout out to @BxEngine and @Rjay for keeping the board clear both before and during the storm of the typical nonsense and bickering that usually goes on.
  19. NJwx85
    Just surpassed 24 straight hours of non stop snow here.
  20. NJwx85
  21. NJwx85
    Looks like another intense band is about to rotate in, coming through Queens now.
  22. NJwx85
    Does it have anything to do with the depth of the cold air mass? It's only 27 degrees here which is actually the warmest it's been in a few days.
  23. NJwx85
  24. NJwx85
    My sister lives on Hurtin Blvd. Before that she lived a few miles away in one of the coops.
  25. NJwx85
    Nick's Hometown Grille
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