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NJwx85

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  1. NJwx85
  2. NJwx85
    NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-161200- /O.CON.KPHI.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1500Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 701 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet and freezing rain will move into the area through the first half of this evening before changing to mainly freezing rain by the overnight. Precipitation may eventually change to a period of all rain in places by Tuesday morning before winding down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  3. NJwx85
    Not until all of the precip is long over.
  4. NJwx85
    I'm throwing in the towel, the 18z 3k NAM is even warmer. The only thing I will cautiously say is that the soundings only show the LHV reaching the mid 30's for highs, and it doesn't really get above 34 until after the precip shuts off. It wouldn't take much of an error for some areas to stay below freezing longer. Should have known that the severe weather down South was going to prompt a more amped up solution.
  5. NJwx85
    It's not the Southeast ridge, look at the difference in strength and position of the high.
  6. NJwx85
    You can see a CAD signature here with the V shaped isobars sagging down into VA. The airmass is certainly running a few degrees warmer than expected but they still have the warnings/advisories up for a reason.
  7. NJwx85
    Step 1, freezing rain falls, freezing on contact. Step 2, most main roads are treated so issues are minimal, but bridges and ramps could be dicey. Some secondary roads could be hazardous. It only takes a light glaze to cause dangerous travel. Step 3, the temperature starts to rise, but even 0.1 to 0.2" ice accretion on branches and power lines is enough to bring them down. Step 4, eventually the temperature rises above freezing, but how much damage is already done by then?
  8. NJwx85
    And hundreds of branches and lines could be down by then.
  9. NJwx85
    You guys do realize that enough ice could fall before temperatures warm to cause major power issues right? It won't matter if we hit 50 degrees tomorrow morning if the power lines are already down.
  10. NJwx85
    It was current when I posted it directly from spc.noaa.gov
  11. NJwx85
    You will wet bulb.
  12. NJwx85
    I am going to be watching the HRRR closely, specifically with temperature profile trends.
  13. NJwx85
    It’s going to be a disaster. That’s why they have a commercial vehicle ban on 287 in NJ.
  14. NJwx85
    Rockland County isn’t upstate.
  15. NJwx85
  16. NJwx85
    Exactly, it only takes a glaze to cause major impacts. We should be below freezing for at least the next 18 hours or so.
  17. NJwx85
    My main concern is that once you start getting above 0.25" ice accretion it's going to take down a lot of branches and power lines. Even though the temperature eventually gets up into the mid 30's by tomorrow morning the damage could already be done. The 3k NAM hasn't been doing great with regards to the spotty activity today and to use Rockland County as an example, doesn't reach 32 degrees until just before sunrise.
  18. NJwx85
    12z 3k NAM is coming in a tick colder than the 06z run.
  19. NJwx85
    27 degrees here currently with light freezing rain falling. Glaze on all surfaces. Travel is becoming dangerous. Ban on commercial traffic on 287 in NJ beginning at 8AM.
  20. NJwx85
    I can see the pessimism near the city and Central Jersey but North of Rt 80 is a different world and North of 287 is going to be mostly if not all ice. The HRRR also has spotty activity all day tomorrow.
  21. NJwx85
    While the models have trended warmer for Tuesday morning, low level cold air is almost always undermodeled.
  22. NJwx85
    What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.
  23. NJwx85
    This is another example of Upton not pulling the trigger on ice storm warnings when it’s more then warranted for the LHV.
  24. NJwx85
    Generally speaking this should continue to expand Northwestward and the heaviest axis of precip should be near the I-80 corridor, but should extend into the Hudson Valley.
  25. NJwx85
    Going to be some surprises later tonight. Unbelievable how clueless the 18z 3k NAM is. Frontogenesis at the lower levels is developing over the I-95 corridor and I expect the radar to fill in after dark. You can see how the latest run of the HRRR shows about a 3-4 hour burst of precip beginning around 03z.
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