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NJwx85

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  1. NJwx85
    That was fast Flash Flood Warning NJC003-013-031-NYC071-087-130115- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0017.210712T2209Z-210713T0115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service New York NY 609 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Northern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... South Central Orange County in southeastern New York... Rockland County in southeastern New York... * Until 915 PM EDT. * At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Paterson, Passaic, Wayne, Bloomfield, New City, Paramus, West Milford, Ridgewood, Monsey, Nanuet, Ramsey, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes, Suffern, Caldwell, Warwick, Sloatsburg, Hawthorne, Pearl River and Bloomingdale.
  2. NJwx85
    Big cell, severe warned, Passaic, Bergen and Rockland Counties. Almost constant thunder off on the distance here.
  3. NJwx85
    Two areas of main focus today per the latest high res models. One over Central NJ and the other over the Hudson Valley, but model skill is poor with exact placement.
  4. NJwx85
    It’s a tropical storm. You would never get this type of moisture transfer during the Winter and with the track LI would have been all rain.
  5. NJwx85
    The center is over the Chesapeake Bay. For this to miss it needs to pass 50-100 miles SE of Cape May. Don’t see that happening.
  6. NJwx85
    Flash flood warning for most of NE NJ and the LHV. Already 1.5-2.5" of rain has fallen. Flash Flood Warning CTC001-NJC003-013-031-NYC087-119-082215- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0010.210708T1915Z-210708T2215Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service New York NY 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut... Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Northeastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Rockland County in southeastern New York... Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 inches in 3 hours. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
  7. NJwx85
    If you believe the HWRF, a slug of 2.5+ PWAT's comes in tonight.
  8. NJwx85
    A lot more storms popping over NNJ and the LHV region. Going to be a wet afternoon and then tonight comes the main show.
  9. NJwx85
    Elsa is hauling now. The edge of the steady rain is about to cross into Southeast Maryland.
  10. NJwx85
    Yup, that's the storm that just went to my South.
  11. NJwx85
    Not here, looks like the heaviest part of the core went just to my South, more towards Saddle River. Now it's headed for Nyack and Westchester. Bit of a right mover.
  12. NJwx85
    Pouring here in Ramsey and severe warned.
  13. NJwx85
    I like the GFS's idea of a general 2-4" of rain almost areawide. Of course, some areas will have the potential to see more if training occurs.
  14. NJwx85
    If the center tracks West of you, pretty good chance at low end tropical storm force winds, especially on the Southern shore of Suffolk. The 12z RGEM has some 40-50kt winds for the forks for a few hours but not expecting any impacts worse than your typical strong noreaster. Main thing besides the rain that we need to be concerned about is potential for rotating storms as the bands come in off the ocean.
  15. NJwx85
    That's still the 06z run unless you have something newer. The track over the DE Bay would be similar to Isaias and would open the door for more severe weather.
  16. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM is slightly more tucked into the coast than the previous run. It's a compromise between the 06z and 12z 3k NAM. Brings the heaviest rains into NE NJ, far SE NY and LI.
  17. NJwx85
    Just remember that the rain shield is never as compact as what the high resolution models predict. Also, the system will be interacting with the jet which will help to both ventilate the system poleward and also fan the system out.
  18. NJwx85
    It's all a timing issue with the speed of the cold front coming in Friday night. The longer the system takes it get up here the further East it will likely end up.
  19. NJwx85
    We just had a massive strike
  20. NJwx85
    Yup, hook on radar.
  21. NJwx85
    When I spoke of not hitting 7" I was mainly speaking about areas North of the city. About 3-4" here near the I-287/Palisades Parkway interchange.
  22. NJwx85
    The 18z GFS has a solid burst of snow tomorrow afternoon while the 18z 3k NAM has spotty snow at best. The 12z RGEM split the difference and looks similar to the latest long range HRRR. Hopefully models are underestimating the snow coverage and intensity tonight, otherwise nobody is getting close to the 7" that was predicted for most.
  23. NJwx85
    No, the high end is 7" so more than likely warning criteria will not be met.
  24. NJwx85
    The criteria is 7" for a warning up in that area but confidence of reaching that usually has to be at least 60%. As I have always said, doesn't matter if you have a watch/warning/advisory ect. What matters is what actually falls.
  25. NJwx85
    It's still pretty much over by Friday morning except for light snow. Same deal as what happened with the last big storm. Accumulating snows should be over with by sunrise except for far Eastern areas.
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