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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I grew up in Pequannock/Pompton Plains. It's not as bad as it used to be but we had a stretch in 2011-2012 where we had five or six significant floods in less than a three year period. Been relatively quiet since then. This storm has the potential to be the most significant flood in the last 10 years.
  2. NJwx85
    Reminiscing of August 2011 for sure but obviously not quite as extreme.
  3. NJwx85
    Just like before big convective snowstorms the axis of heaviest totals will shift a little each run. Last night it was North, this morning it's a little bit South. Consensus puts the heaviest totals between the LHV region and Northern NJ spreading eastward into SNE and Long Island. The real killer here is that some areas could see in excess of 6" in under 12 hours and this could occur over a widespread area. Several river systems in NNJ are in trouble.
  4. NJwx85
    So much for the wagons North comments. The RGEM has been consistently too far South and other than a blip run here or there the rest of the models have been locked in on a solid 4-6” here with locally higher amounts.
  5. NJwx85
    Finally intensifying. Huge burst of deep convection wrapping around the center.
  6. NJwx85
    Eyewall visible on radar.
  7. NJwx85
  8. NJwx85
    Also this is turning NW. The models and the track are way too far East.
  9. NJwx85
    It looks outstanding on IR loop currently. Best it has looked all day.
  10. NJwx85
    The GFS is very poor with East Coast Hurricanes. It had Sandy landfalling into ME the day before and it did poorly with some more recent ones too.
  11. NJwx85
    I haven’t seen anything out of the 18z suite that handled the PRE correctly. Even the latest HRRR busted badly.
  12. NJwx85
    The GFS is banking on a much weaker storm and that’s a big reason it’s so far East.
  13. NJwx85
    She looks ugly on IR but the core is much better defined.
  14. NJwx85
    The waters will be trending cooler however they are still running 24-26c south of LI so any weakening before landfall will be very gradual. In the end the dry air will probably be an issue if this never really deepens.
  15. NJwx85
    The Eastern side will be mostly void of convection when it gets up to LI.
  16. NJwx85
    5pm advisory was slightly East. Window for significant intensification is closing. The 12z HWRF does deepen the storm to 972mb so a cat 2 isn’t off the table yet.
  17. NJwx85
    This is close to a non event in Jersey, especially if it comes in slightly East of the current track.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    Typical windshield wiper affect. Models over corrected East last night and the shift back to the West has begun with the Euro. I am still thinking that the most likely landfall location is SW Suffolk.
  20. NJwx85
    I'm down in Central Florida. Have been here since Saturday. Leaving next Saturday. Go figure that we would have a better chance of a hurricane in New York while I'm away than here in Florida.
  21. NJwx85
    Anyone have velocity handy? Looks like a bit of a hook heading towards Rockland County on normal radar.
  22. NJwx85
    This was taken on 287 near Wanaque
  23. NJwx85
    I’ve seen this in the plains. It’s indicative of the enhanced low level shear.
  24. NJwx85
    Almost constant thunder but no rain or wind yet.
  25. NJwx85
    About to get pummeled here
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