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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    LOL at the Canadian. 952mb SE of the benchmark. Just look at how ridiculous these winds are. If it verified, it would likely bring a period of sustained hurricane force winds to cape cod and possibly the rest of SE NE with heavy snow. Just unreal model porn. Strong signal for a rapidly deepening and very damaging system. My initial thoughts are that you probably want to be East of the Hudson river for the big, big numbers but I think most of NJ and the Hudson Valley will still do really well. If you compare the more recent runs of the GFS to the ones that were showing a bigger storm further West, not much has changed with the upper air pattern. Subtle differences in timing are making big differences.
  2. NJwx85
    Boxing Day was a pure Miller A.
  3. NJwx85
    Embarrassing
  4. NJwx85
    Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember.
  5. NJwx85
    Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this.
  6. NJwx85
    Strong storm signal. Reminds me of 1/26-1/27 2015.
  7. NJwx85
    Never said 12 hours of snow. Said a good thumping for a few hours if I recall correctly.
  8. NJwx85
    Snowed moderately at my location in SE Rockland County from 8pm to 1am. Finished with about 3” before the changeover. It thumped for a good 3 hours.
  9. NJwx85
    Yes we're all aware of the strong LLJ but that CAD signature over the Hudson Valley is no joke. Perhaps 15 miles inland was a little bullish, but I think a lot of areas North of 287 and west of the GSP have a better chance of just drying up due to the proximity of the mid level lows rather than flip to rain. NYC South and East is a completely different ballgame unless things change drastically.
  10. NJwx85
    I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't win out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.
  11. NJwx85
    For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.
  12. NJwx85
    I wonder how much of the low level warming would be mitigated by strong dynamics in this setup. Either way by the time it gets warm enough for rain most of the precip has already fallen unless you're on the immediate coast.
  13. NJwx85
    Quick dry slot this run. About 12 hours of front end snow followed by dry slot as the low jumps from near DC to the benchmark. It almost looks like a late developing miller B. Need the mid level centers to pass offshore to have a chance at the back end CCB.
  14. NJwx85
    Very little change so far with the 18z GFS through 00z Monday.
  15. NJwx85
    Thanks. Family and work occupy most of my time these days but it's still fun to come on here when something significant is on the table. The recent trends from the GFS has been promising. Don't see anyone around here getting into double digit snowfall but this could easily be the biggest event so far this season for many.
  16. NJwx85
    The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot. Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot. This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.
  17. NJwx85
    It still shows very strong winds aloft in the early morning hours and not much of an inversion.
  18. NJwx85
    The rain is advancing gradually Westward from Suffolk. Based on the latest HRRR another 1-2" coming for most, especially from NE NJ into the LHV, CT and Long Island.
  19. NJwx85
    Starting to see partial sunlight in Ramsey.
  20. NJwx85
    The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.
  21. NJwx85
    Absolutely pouring here in Ramsey, NJ under the pivot.
  22. NJwx85
    The storm will be pinwheeling back towards the coast tonight. We will get the strongest winds tonight into tomorrow. The rain will pick back up too.
  23. NJwx85
    It's just a little too far Northeast. The heaviest axis will be over the Hudson Valley and SW CT. The advance North has stopped and the band is starting to pivot.
  24. NJwx85
    The HRRR doesn't have much of an inversion but the storm will occlude tonight as it rotates West and slowly weakens. It will still pack quite a punch but it will not be as intense the further West it gets.
  25. NJwx85
    West of the Hudson 20-30MPH with a few gusts over 40MPH. Hudson river to the Suffolk County line 30-40MPH with a few gusts over 50MPH. Highest potential is Suffolk, especially the North shore for sustained over 40MPH with gusts 60+.
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