NJwx85

The PV dropping down through New England killed this storm and the one that would have come the end of next week. The energy coming out of the plains won't dig enough and the pattern is flat and overall progressive. It comes down to bad timing.

The warm air out West starts building East on the EPS post day 9.

The cold air in the East definitely begins retreating after the pre Christmas storm.

The northern stream piece coming through the upper plains is problematic for areas North of the city because it forces the ULL East prematurely.

Naked swirl alert.

This is the one directly West of Boynton Beach correct?

Just to clarify, I wasn't implying that this was going to restrengthen, although some of the hurricane models had modest deepening occurring in the final 12 hours yesterday. But steady state or very slow weakening is likely, and impacts are going to continue to be severe.

Deep ring of -80C convection now around the center.

IR loop on Tropical Tidbits is back up. Pretty substantial blowup of -80C tops near the center currently.

Tornado warning now for Southeastern Orange County and Northeastern Osceola County. Current trajectory should take it very close to KMCO.

Over the next couple of hours these cells will be entering the highly populated I-4 corridor.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 FLC085-111-091845- /O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-241009T1845Z/ St. Lucie FL-Martin FL- 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE AND NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES... At 217 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Tradition, or near Port Saint Lucie, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Port Saint Lucie, Tradition, and Saint Lucie West around 220 PM EDT. Fort Pierce and Fort Pierce South around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Collins Park Estates.

I have family currently riding this out in the Disney area. Things should get interesting in that region over the next 4-6 hours tornado wise.

Still managing to avoid most of the dry air coming in from the West.

The damage is done. Surge is baked in. And the tornado/flash flooding threats inland are prolific.

At the end of this loop it appears that the old inner eyewall collapses.

12z HAFS-B

Also shows a swath of 12-18" of rain with locally higher amounts over most of the I-4 corridor. Even though likely overdone, that's going to cause a lot of problems to go with the tornados and tropical storm force winds.

I know that the NAM isn't very useful for tropical systems but look at this forecasted sounding and hodograph from the 12z 3k NAM for the Orlando area.

This is not something that you see everyday in Florida. There is potential here for more than just quick spin ups.

I'm not an expert but this shear profile doesn't look that unfavorable to me. If it gets strong enough, it might tilt the vortex some, but it's fairly aligned with the track.

This combined with the tornado threat are going to be major stories away from the immediate coast.

Milton is so far doing an excellent job of fighting off the shear. As someone else just eluded too, new deep convection (-80C or colder) cloud tops have begun wrapping around the Western half of the system. The ragged appearance this morning was likely due to a combination of the ERC and overall less favorable conditions. Additionally, dry air intrusion is currently minimal if at all. The models that weaken Milton the most on final approach have dry air wrapping around the entire Southeastern portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see if this happens. The 12z sounding out of Key West still shows a very moist environment.

Over the past hour or so there has been slight warming of the CDO in the SW quadrant but other than that the current presentation is prestine. This reminds me of Dorian at peak intensity.

The plane just got there. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49