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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Rain to 287 and no Sunday action.
  2. NJwx85
    100 miles East at 18z Sunday and 5mb weaker.
  3. NJwx85
    18z GFS far less impressive with Sunday snows.
  4. NJwx85
    One thing I can tell you about the 18z 3k NAM is that it indicates about a 6 hour period in NYC and surrounding areas of moderate to heavy snow Saturday night before any mixing issues. Even at 04z NYC is at 33 degrees but soundings show the column below freezing so it would still be snow. After 05z there’s a warm nose around 750mb which would cause sleet to mix in.
  5. NJwx85
    Sunday is going to be a nowcasting event and has tremendous bust chances in both directions. Even if it worked out verbatim like the GFS/NAM show it’s still going to come down to exactly where and when the band pivots. We shall see if confidence increases the next two days. Still lots of time to go.
  6. NJwx85
    For the most part.
  7. NJwx85
    Winter storm watch for 5 to 8” for OBX area excluding NYC and LI.
  8. NJwx85
    There’s a weakening line of flurries passing Southeast over the NY/CT border.
  9. NJwx85
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1742975148087730376?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
  10. NJwx85
    If you’re looking for more than a sloppy couple of inches we will need stronger dynamics to help cool the BL. Still you’re looking at 33-34 degrees in the city during peak intensity. The better hope is that Sunday materializes.
  11. NJwx85
    6”+ on the GFS for the North and West of 287 crowd.
  12. NJwx85
    The only area that gets shafted is the immediate coastline, like the city, South shore of LI and far Eastern NJ.
  13. NJwx85
    Storm passes just South of LI and we dry slot by 12z Sunday.
  14. NJwx85
    Newark is 33 degrees in that panel.
  15. NJwx85
    GFS is a big hit. Heavy snow North of I-78. CAD into the Northern burbs and North Shore. Philly proper is rain.
  16. NJwx85
    Looking like the 12z GFS will be less suppressed this run.
  17. NJwx85
    Snow ratios with this storm will be in the 6 or 8:1 range outside of the most intense banding.
  18. NJwx85
    I’m a little surprised with how consistent the models have been this far out with the potential for this weekend. There’s a well positioned high and blocking which obviously opens the door for suppression. It looks like the heaviest snow will be interior Eastern PA and the mountains NW of DC and BWI. The 00z Euro is less suppressed looking than the GFS. Looks like there will be a sharp cut off either way around I-84.
  19. NJwx85
    Sideways rain here and some minor street flooding. Very windy.
  20. NJwx85
    This is the NAM's prediction for a few hours from now.
  21. NJwx85
  22. NJwx85
    Still to come per the 18z HRRR
  23. NJwx85
    Absolutely unloading here in Ramsey, NJ.
  24. NJwx85
    Moderate to at times heavy rain again here in NW Bergen County.
  25. NJwx85
    It's not. Rain is intensifying near Paramus and filling in.
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