NJwx85

Can you post West of NYC?

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours. HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

The 18z RGEM is almost all sleet.

With the last ice event, the NWS heavily weighted the HRRR and SREF probabilities. The HRRR is still out of range. The SREF probabilities target the same areas as some of the higher res models.

It depends on your location. And Central Park might get some plain rain but that would be rain falling at 31-32 that doesn't freeze.

NYC is still going to get quite a bit of sleet. Nothing has really changed except for the fact that the mid levels have trended warmer and the lower levels have trended colder.

You have a few people talking about how this is a non event for the coast like it's breaking news.

Again, warm bias.

I know that this is hard for you to believe but it's the short term, high resolution models like the one I posted that you should be looking at right now. Not the globals and not the clueless NAM. The 3k NAM does have some skill but this should be your red flag here. When the UKMET is only showing temps topping out in the lower 30's and then dropping like a rock you should probably think twice considering it has a known warm bias. Again, this isn't a big deal for the city. IT WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR THEM OR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THAT'S THE TRADEOFF OF LIVING NEAR THE OCEAN AND SURROUNDED BY CONCRETE.

Nobody is talking about an ice storm in the concrete jungle.

Your trolling is awful. Yup, non event here. Freezing rain during the morning rush after 2-4" of snow, nothing to see here.

0.25-0.50" is not a small ice accretion. Most of that falls with surface temps in the mid to upper 20's over interior NJ and SE NY. Whatever power lines and tree limbs that have fallen by then won't snap back into place because the temperatures rise above freezing lol.

40 degrees? I don't think so. Maybe mid to upper 30's at the coast. That's not where the big problems are going to be anyway. And the problems mostly occur while the ice is falling. Once precipitation stops it's over. If temps do get above freezing in the interior it won't be until after everything is done.

I always find the tracking more fun than the actual storm. With that being said, this was never a good setup for snow. The primary low makes it to at least Buffalo which is terrible for NYC. And the ice threat looks more pronounced than the last event.

Point and click only, but this is centered over Orange County. Shows sleet at 12z but it's close to being freezing rain.

Yes, so from about 700 to 850mb the atmosphere is above freezing and then it's below freezing from about 900mb and down. This theoretically could be a mix of sleet and freezing rain but for more sleet you would want to see a much less pronounced warm tongue. Below is a classic sleet sounding form the same model a few hours earlier. You can see it barely is above freezing but it's there around 750mb.

Classic ZR sounding. This is near the Suffern area at 13z Friday. 27 degrees at this point.

It's been clear since Tuesday that nobody South of I-84 was going to see more than a few inches of snow. With that being said, inland areas are still going to see 3-6 hours of moderate to heavy snow before the changeover and that's why 2-6" is expected North of Rt 80. Now we turn to ice potential versus sleet. The latest guidance is really dicey for the I-78-I-80-I-287 corridor. You might see some upgrades this afternoon if current trends continue.

Can you please post SREF ZR probabilities?

The cold air will hang at the surface but the 700-800mb SW jet is racing in. It’s borderline in the beginning but very pronounced by 08-10z.

I don’t like how far North the primary gets. From that standpoint it’s a big outlier.

What a gradient, 9.4" in Warwick and 0.7" in Morristown. Almost all sleet in between the ice.

One of these is not like the other. I'm guessing you can figure out which one is wrong. vs

Upton pissing in everyone's tea. Snow/sleet amounts have been adjusted down a bit given today`s model trends and potential for the warm nose to be quicker than originally anticipated. Within the watch area, 3 to 6 inches of snow/sleet is forecast with one to two tenths of ice accretion possible. Around an inch of snow/sleet across NYC metro and Long Island and potentially up to 2 inches across coastal CT is forecast into early Friday morning before changing over to plain rain. Any freezing rain looks brief across these areas with a brief glaze of ice possible. Again as mentioned above, the winter storm watch remains in effect Thursday evening into Friday. It may eventually be converted to an advisory given ongoing model trends continue. An advisory may also be needed at the coast largely due to some light icing before the changeover to plain rain around or shortly after daybreak Friday. It should be noted that the overall large scale pattern with strong warm advection aloft argues for a mixed PTYPE well into the interior. The main uncertainty is how quickly this warm air will move from south to north across the area. While the NAM may be too aggressive, its past performance in similar situations supports a trend down in snow/sleet amounts, with potential for adjustments down in subsequent forecasts.