NJwx85

12Z GFS has a lot of dry air to the East and South of the center from Wednesday afternoon on. As others have said, it looks like convection will have trouble building on the Eastern side of the storm once near Florida. I wonder how much of the wind will actually mix down to the surface if the Eastern side is mostly void of deep convection.

It's pretty astounding how a hurricane in the Western Caribbean in September could have issues with dry air entrainment but you can clearly see all of the dry, sinking air on water vapor loop. I still think that once Ian gets North of Cuba we're going to see a period of steady intensification, with a likely max intensity near 115-120kts. Every major model shreds this storm once it gets North of Tampa so assuming that the center passes at least 50 miles offshore at Tampa's latitude, biggest story might be inland flooding in the Southern Appalachians. I know a lot of people that canceled Disney plans for this coming week and I kept telling them that the average track error at day 5 is more than 150 miles. If the HWRF/GFS camp end up being more correct, Central FL might not see much impacts at all.

New cell firing near Sparta, NJ moving ENE. It's fairly isolated from the rest and going over untapped areas.

3000-3500 J/KG SBCAP and 40-45kts of bulk shear getting it done. Best dynamics are over New England but they aren't bad over our area either.

Looks like a big hail core near TPZ bridge.

Cell is splitting. Southern storm moving towards the city, Northern cell moving towards Rockland and Westchester.

I have a visible on the Bergen County storm. Spectacular storm structure for this area. Definitely looks like a supercell. Saw in the warning that a trained spotter reported weak rotation in Bloomfield.

Most of the models had activity confined to the N&W of I-95 which is why the slight risk more or less parallels the NJ TPK. Plenty of SBCAPE areawide which is probably why they issued a watch further South but most of the significant wind shear is focused near the warm front which is anchored over Southern NY.

Another cluster is building over Warren/Morris/Somerset counties and moving Northeast. Going to be moving over the same hard hit areas. Round 3 for many since 7AM.

Interesting parameter.

Under that cell here currently. Sky is pitch black. Someone earlier had posted what looked like some weak rotation overhead from Whippany.

The rotation over the NNJ cell, specifically the one headed towards Passaic County is strengthening some. I'm a little surprised they haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet.

Already deleted my post and fixed it. Thanks.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch area wide excluding Eastern Long Island till 10PM. PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

Impressive amount of SBCAPE building south of the warm front. This coupled with 30-40kts of shear should be sufficient for severe weather. The cells currently moving across NNJ have already shown some weak rotation.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 415 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are currently intensifying over central Pennsylvania will track eastward into the watch area this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Pittsfield MA to 30 miles south of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

I don’t understand the hesitance to issue ice storm warnings. It was clear last night some areas could get a half inch or more and it happened in NJ.

Got about an inch of sleet here and a glaze so far.

Did you know the NAM won?

11z HRRR says another 0.3-0.5” of ice.

TWC is really bullish on the ice. Large area of 0.25-0.75” including most of NNJ into the LHV.

I think you neee to be North of Woodbury for more than an inch or two.

The 02z HRRR has a large swath of 0.25”+ with 0.71” at MMU. They really should have considered warnings.

The radar trends indicate this is going to be all IP/ZR.