NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations
NJwx85 posted a topic in New York City Metro
Snow well inland will quickly flip to rain this afternoon as heavy rain and warm air surge over the region. We have a highlighted potential for flash flooding, damaging winds and thunderstorms, especially late this evening. Tomorrow is going to be a wild day with mild temps to start the day and then an arctic blast during the afternoon which will produce a rapid drop in temps and the potential for some back end snow and more damaging winds. Discuss here and post your obs. -
The 12z GFS has been very persistent with the potential for a quick burst of snow on Friday afternoon along the arctic front. Mesoscale models don't show much. I personally think that the dry air moves in way too quickly but Western areas could see flakes, especially Ulster/Sullivan/Orange/Warren/Sussex.
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It looks like we might see some heavy convection, possibly even some thunderstorms late Thursday night. NAM even has some modest mid level lapse rates.
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Looks like a 2-4 hour period of sustained winds of 30-40MPH with potential for higher gusts around 04-06z Friday. The 12z NAM has very intense convection overhead our area in correlation with max vorticity. 925mb winds peak around 65-70kts. Could get dicey if that is able to mix to the surface in heavy precip.
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The GFS has really backed off on impacts for our area as well. Only real notables will be high wind potential late Thursday into Friday and potential flash freeze.
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The 00z Euro closed off the ULL over Southern Indiana. The 12z run today closes it off near Cleveland. The difference between an upper mid West blizzard and one in Quebec.
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I'm looking forward to the warmth around New Years. Will be a nice break after the frigid air this weekend. Extended cold doesn't guarantee anything. You need well timed systems.
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The secondary forming on the arctic front has the potential to screw a lot of people in the upper mid-west, depends on how quickly it forms and where.
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PWAT's approach 2" tonight on nose of strengthening LLJ. Good chance that some of these waves of showers and embedded storms will overperform, especially if any convection can get going. Cannot rule out a few waterspouts moving onshore either, especially on the NJ coast.
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Add Ian to the list of names that will be retired. Lots of I names in recent years.
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Almost looks like center is trying to reform further Norrh on IR loop under deep convection.
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Sandy was about as extreme as you will ever get up this way. Numerous gusts over 90mph for many hours. A true tropical major couldn’t survive up this way.
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You’re going to have issues anywhere you see 90+ mph gusts for an extended period of time unless the power lines are moved underground. But New England isn’t a third world country. I remember seeing crews from Arkansas here after Sandy.
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Sandy more or less destroyed the power grid from Tom’s River up to Brooklyn/Queens and most areas had power back in about 7-10 days. Now a days you have massive mobilizations of crews from out of state, the power wouldn’t be out for more than a few weeks.
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Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent.
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Ian is now fully back over water, at least in terms of the center. Already some deeper convection starting to fire near the center.
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Center is moving offshore now near Port Canaveral. Will be interesting to see how quickly Ian reorganizes over still very warm SST for next 24 hours.
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It’s going to get interesting there as the eye passes well South and winds flip to onshore next couple of hours. Still overall think they dogged quite a bullet.
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It looks like the Orlando area will get what’s left of the Western eyewall tonight and tomorrow AM. Could be the worst storm in WDW history.
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Outflow is restricted on the SW side and shear is evedint on IR loop. However, only 4-6 hours to go and storm is thus far doing a good job of fighting it off. Maybe just some slight weakening until landfall but either way it’s a large storm with a large wind field and the impacts are going to be major.
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Hearing unconfirmed rumors that they have started issuing evacuation orders for portions of Tampa area.
